Traders are either closing positions to take profits.
Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On May 30, the last day of the Bitcoin 2025 conference, the market once again confirmed the curse of significant declines during conferences.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $105,000 this morning, reaching a low of $104,600. Ethereum also dropped from a high of $2,788 to a low of $2,557. The altcoin market generally experienced a pullback, with some altcoins like BERA even hitting historical lows.
In the futures market, according to Coinglass data, $330 million was liquidated across the network in the past hour, with $321 million in long positions and $7.89 million in short positions.
In the macro market, U.S. crypto stocks COIN and MSTR both fell in after-hours trading. The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts has been fluctuating; Fed's Daly stated on Thursday that while policymakers might still cut rates twice this year, current rates should remain stable to ensure inflation can reach the Fed's 2% target. Daly emphasized that as long as inflation is above the target and uncertainty exists, inflation will remain a focal point, given the robust labor market conditions. Additionally, the U.S. trade court's ruling to block Trump's tariff measures was overturned by an appeals court on Thursday, highlighting the uncertainty in trade policy, which has left many businesses and the Fed uneasy.
Is this pullback a healthy short-term correction, or are we about to enter a long-term consolidation phase again? Let's hear the market views from experts and analysts.
Placeholder Partner: A slight market pullback does not mean the end of the trend; the risk structure remains good
Placeholder partner Chris Burniske stated on social media, "Do not mistake a slight pullback for the end of the trend; the overall risk/reward structure remains good."
Matrixport: Futures data indicates traders may be closing positions to take profits
According to the latest report released by Matrixport (analyst Markus Thielen from 10x Research), open interest in futures has significantly increased since the April lows. Although Solana has retreated to second place due to the cooling of meme coins and the Pump.fun craze, Bitcoin's open interest has shown significant growth. This surge may reflect a shift in market risk appetite, especially following Trump's recent reversal of tariff policies. Bitcoin continues to play a dual role as both a "risk-on" and "safe-haven" asset, increasingly aligning with the narrative of "digital gold."
However, open interest currently seems to be stabilizing, which may confirm our view that traders are beginning to take profits and plan to re-enter at lower levels.
Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin enters a healthy consolidation phase; profit-taking by short-term holders may trigger selling pressure
Bitfinex Alpha released a report on May 26 stating that after reaching an all-time high in January, Bitcoin experienced a 32% pullback but subsequently rebounded strongly by over 50%, reaching a new high of $111,880, and is now in a healthy consolidation phase. Strong ETF inflows, a surge in spot market participation, and positive growth in "realized net capital" have driven structural buying in the market rather than excessive speculation. Despite a decline in macro risk appetite, such as reports of the U.S. potentially imposing a 50% tariff on European imports, Bitcoin has remained resilient—showing no significant decline during the deleveraging and profit-taking process.
This resilience is drawing market attention to Bitcoin evolving into a "macro-sensitive, belief-driven asset," with its trading behavior now more related to global liquidity trends rather than retail sentiment. Notably, Japan's Metaplanet company has increased its Bitcoin holdings by $104 million, and Michigan in the U.S. has proposed legislation favorable to crypto assets, further validating the growing institutional and policy support for digital assets.
Looking ahead, whether Bitcoin can continue to consolidate above its short-term holder cost basis (around $95,000) will be crucial. In the past month, short-term holders have realized over $11.4 billion in profits, so there may be some selling pressure in the short term, but structural demand remains. The strength of ETF buying, low volatility, and premium signals in the spot market all indicate that the market is maturing, and once the macro environment clarifies, further upside may follow. The next few weeks will determine whether Bitcoin's recent breakout is a temporary peak or the prelude to a stronger rally in Q3.
Arthur Hayes: Ethereum price expected to double to $5,000 this year
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated at the Bitcoin 2025 conference that Ethereum's price is expected to reach $4,000-$5,000 this year. Hayes believes Ethereum is currently the "most unpopular layer one blockchain," but this could present an investment opportunity during a market cycle transition.
CryptoQuant Analyst: BTC short-term holders have realized profits at local highs, but have not reached previous bull market peak levels
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated on social media that the STH SOPR (30-day moving average), which measures the average realized profit and loss of short-term investors when spending tokens, recently reached a local high, indicating that profits realized by short-term holders have significantly increased.
Nevertheless, demand for tokens remains strong, not affecting the current upward trend. This indicator has not yet reached the levels of euphoria seen at previous significant price peaks.
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