Source: If You Miss This Bitcoin Run, Don’t Say You Weren’t Told

Compiled & Translated by: lenaxin, ChainCatcher

Editor’s Note:

This article is compiled from the video interview between Anthony Pompliano and Jordi Visser, who is a macro strategy investment expert with 30 years of experience on Wall Street. Jordi will provide a unique perspective on the current economic situation. In the interview, Jordi also delves into hot topics such as inflation, the stock market, Bitcoin, and AI, and analyzes why market trends often contradict mainstream expectations.

ChainCatcher has organized and compiled the content.

TL&DR

1. The definition of "economic recession" in traditional economics textbooks has lost its explanatory power under the contemporary economic structure.
2. The market is beginning to view Bitcoin as an indispensable part of asset allocation.
3. Continuous currency depreciation is an inevitable trend.
4. Autonomous investors, independent investors, and retail investors are the true dominant forces in the market.
5. The essence of the "Federal Reserve put option" is perpetual currency depreciation.
6. The core driving factor of Bitcoin's price movement lies in the changing correlation between the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields.
7. Structural changes in capital flows are far more worthy of attention than short-term economic fluctuations.
8. Currency repatriation caused by tariff policies will continue to pressure the dollar, thereby affecting the yield curve.
9. The strong performance of the AI industry in Q1 has robustly supported overall economic indicators.
10. In the current exponential development of AI, the importance of historical experience is diminishing.

(1) Inflation Controversy and Data Trust Crisis​

Anthony Pompliano: The market was once worried about tariffs, economic recession, and even a Great Depression, but April data shows that consumption remains strong, some goods have decreased in price, and inflation is retreating. The stock market has rebounded rapidly; does this mean the alarm has been lifted? How do you view these economic signals?

Jordi Visser: With the easing of tariff issues, the policy path over the past five weeks has become clearer: from a 90-day delay in tariffs on Chinese products to a phased increase in rates, the overall trend is now reasonable, mostly maintaining around 10%, close to the level recognized by Druckenmiller.

This has made the divergence in economic data more apparent: corporate sentiment (soft data) remains low, but consumption and "hard data" driven by AI investment are performing robustly. Although consumption is temporarily affected by market fluctuations, the strong performance of the AI industry has supported the economy.

Therefore, the rebound of the S&P 500 is justified. Despite many pessimistic expectations, the stock market has still risen this year, and recession predictions have not materialized. In fact, the traditional definition of recession is increasingly difficult to apply to the current complex and resilient economic structure.

Anthony Pompliano: Current economic data is showing a clear trend of politicization; how should we find credible reference indicators? Should we reassess the reference value of such politicized data in economic analysis?

Jordi Visser: In the current environment, the Bitcoin community has a unique advantage. In the age of social media, people are more likely to encounter information that aligns with their own views, and many macro analysts attract attention by being bearish on the market. However, Bitcoin holders, having long been unaccepted by the mainstream, have developed the ability to question authority and think independently.

In the context of accelerated AI development, the importance of historical experience is diminishing. For example, drawing parallels between 19th-century tariff policies and the present is outdated; modern information spreads rapidly, and rumors like port vacancies can quickly amplify people's panic about inflation, making rational judgment more difficult.

The core advantage of Bitcoin holders is their understanding of "cognitive humility." The current macro essence is: there is too much debt, and the government cannot rely on tax increases or spending cuts to cope, ultimately having to resolve it through currency depreciation, which will weaken bond values but benefit Bitcoin. The key is to discern truly important signals amidst the noise of social media.

(2) Bitcoin's Comeback: From Marginal Asset to Market Leader​

Anthony Pompliano: The advantage of Bitcoin holders lies in their "cognitive blank slate," acknowledging their lack of understanding of traditional finance, which allows them to accept new paradigms more readily. Bitcoin is not an IQ test but a test of cognitive flexibility: can one break free from old thinking and recognize that we are in a new economic paradigm?

Capital is now accelerating its shift towards autonomous investors; autonomous investors, independent investors, and retail investors are the true dominant forces in the market. Institutions may have funds but often get caught in complex strategies, such as hedging, which is essentially just arbitrage; whereas the retail "buy and hold" strategy is simpler and more effective, as evidenced by multiple cases in Tesla, Palantir, and GameStop.

In the context of currency depreciation, the most straightforward "buy and hold" strategy often outperforms sophisticated financial engineering.

Jordi Visser: The long-held belief on Wall Street in the "Federal Reserve put option" theory is undergoing fundamental changes. Traditional financial crises often form a U-shaped bottom (slowly bottoming out and recovering), but now the market is showing an I-shaped straight rebound (immediate recovery after a sharp drop).

There are two main reasons behind this:

1. AI is reshaping the economic structure, and the widespread adoption of flexible employment makes large-scale unemployment unlikely, rendering traditional recession models ineffective.
2. Recession has become a policy choice, with the government using inflationary policies to counteract the deflationary pressures brought by technology, balancing the economy between technological deflation and policy inflation.

Bitcoin investors can see through this trend due to two points of understanding:

• They understand that the "Federal Reserve put option" is essentially continuous currency depreciation.
• High-frequency trading has trained their mindset, allowing them to make calm decisions under pressure, like poker players.

Anthony Pompliano: When market consensus diverges from real trends, how can we identify effective economic signals? When authoritative judgments consistently diverge from market realities, what are the true leading indicators?

Jordi Visser: I believe the stock market will still be volatile this year, but corporate earnings growth and economic fundamentals will remain stable.

Paul Tudor Jones turned bearish before the easing of U.S.-China tariffs, and Steve Cohen also predicts a 45% probability of recession and a potential market pullback. But we must be cautious: when well-known investors turn bearish, it may be because they missed the rebound and are trying to guide market sentiment.

I do not believe the market will test the lows again, as the unique financial model of the AI industry plays a role: while tech giants plan $300 billion in capital expenditures, they only need to amortize $30 billion this year. This "revenue upfront, costs deferred" model provides profit space for the S&P 500 in the short term. A similar situation occurred in the early days of cloud computing and the internet, but the difference now is that tech companies have lower debt levels.

In the long term (2-3 years from now), when the Mag7 companies need to deliver real returns, challenges will emerge. Sequoia points out that startups are gradually eroding the market share of giants. It is expected that after the market reaches new highs, it will face pressure, but it will not return to the lows in the short term.

(3) AI Revolution: The Power to Reshape Economic Rules​

Anthony Pompliano: When AI startups dare to challenge industry giants, aren’t these "choices of opponents" the strongest endorsements of value?

Jordi Visser: Based on the latest data disclosed by Stripe, AI programming tools represented by Cursor have achieved $300 million in annual recurring revenue, driving a structural change in the software development paradigm alongside innovative products like Replit and Windsurf.

While AI cannot yet replace the top 2% of programmers, it can already substitute for 80% of basic coding work, and this proportion continues to rise.

The impact of technological change can be likened to offensive tactics in football: startups only need to break through a few "defensive lines," while large enterprises are constrained by structure, inertia, and compliance, making transformation costs higher. This structural difference is the key variable explaining the efficiency divergence in corporate digital transformation.

In particular, medium-sized enterprises (valued at $300 million to $2 billion) face a dilemma: lacking the flexibility of startups while also being unable to enjoy economies of scale, with 63% of companies burdened by floating-rate debt, clearly under pressure in an environment where inflation maintains at 3.2%. This "middle layer dilemma" highlights the structural costs in the technological revolution.

Looking ahead to 2024-2029, S&P 500 companies will face direct impacts from emerging tech companies. Will these disruptors still follow the traditional IPO route? Compared to old-school economists who talk a good game, entrepreneurs on the front lines are clearly more qualified to answer this question.

Anthony Pompliano: In the context of accelerated productivity release, is there still a basis for being bearish on assets in the next three years? Can the market's pessimism still hold?

Jordi Visser: Market historian Russell Napier points out that changes in the structure of capital flows are the real key, rather than short-term economic fluctuations. Tariff policies are driving dollar repatriation, which will continue to suppress the dollar and, in turn, affect the yield curve.

In the AI-driven new economic landscape, the stock market exhibits two major characteristics: the top 10% of the population contributes half of consumption, combined with vast assets and transfer payments, resulting in strong consumption resilience; at the same time, $300 billion in AI spending is boosting profit margins and driving infrastructure investment. Traditional recession warning models are becoming ineffective.

While some small and medium-sized enterprises are under pressure, the overall market is more likely to experience sideways movement rather than a significant decline, with the biggest risk being failing to outpace inflation. In this technology-driven era, neglecting the productivity changes brought by AI could mean missing out on important investment opportunities.

(4) Debt, Interest Rates, and Bitcoin's Hedging Logic​

Anthony Pompliano: Why does Bitcoin always manage to adjust its price first before the geopolitical situation becomes fully clear?

Jordi Visser: In the current economic policy environment, the institutional adoption rate of Bitcoin is accelerating. Sovereign wealth funds and government institutions are continuously increasing their holdings, and people are finally beginning to see it as a necessary component of asset allocation due to its unique value stemming from low correlation with traditional assets. Bitcoin demonstrates resilience during market downturns and rebounds ahead of the stock market.

However, the second half of the year may face interest rate risks arising from debt deficit issues. The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds is nearing a 20-year high, directly related to capital repatriation from Asia and the deterioration of the U.S. fiscal situation. When the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds breaks through the 4.8%-4.85% range, the correlation between stocks and bonds may change. Pension funds, having achieved sufficient funding due to rising interest rates, may increase their bond allocations, further pushing up long-term rates.

Anthony Pompliano: What level do you think the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield needs to reach? From a policy and economic perspective, should this upper limit be below 4%, or even lower? What should the yield standard that truly represents "policy success" be?

Jordi Visser: The core driving factor of Bitcoin's price movement lies in the changing correlation between the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields. The current market shows structural divergence: although U.S. stocks continue to rebound, the dollar index's fluctuation range is narrowing, while the federal funds rate remains high. This state of divergence is difficult to sustain in the long term.

As interest rates rise further, the default rates on U.S. consumer credit and housing mortgages have climbed to cyclical highs. In this context, policymakers may be forced to introduce housing market rescue policies. While the likelihood of directly implementing quantitative easing is low, targeted liquidity support measures similar to those during the Silicon Valley Bank incident cannot be ruled out.

In the new economic paradigm driven by AI technology, the impact of rising interest rates on the tech industry shows significant differentiation. Leading tech companies, referred to as the Mag7 (specifically Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, and other seven tech giants), are essentially immune to financing cost pressures, and companies in the AI sector also demonstrate strong profit resilience. This structural difference provides a foundation for Bitcoin's potential short squeeze.

Anthony Pompliano: For AI companies, higher interest rates may actually bring greater competitive advantages, while their competitors face higher capital costs.

Jordi Visser: The current economy exhibits structural differentiation, with corporate bankruptcies coexisting alongside the growth of startups. Traditional companies are being forced to exit due to rising financing costs, while AI startups are rapidly emerging, reflecting an improvement in resource allocation efficiency. However, whether this transformation is healthy still requires vigilance against potential structural risks.

The key is to determine: is this a benign market self-regulation, or does it hide a systemic crisis? Whether the decline of traditional industries can match the growth pace of emerging sectors will determine the sustainability of this transformation.

(5) Creative Destruction: The Survival Rule in the AI Era​

Anthony Pompliano: How do we assess the quality of the current economic adjustment? Are the resources of eliminated companies effectively transferred to more innovative and efficient emerging enterprises?

Jordi Visser: From a micro perspective, corporate closures do indeed result in job losses and interruptions in household income, which are social costs; but from the macroeconomic operational mechanism, this process of survival of the fittest resembles organizational optimization of companies and is a necessary means to maintain market vitality and promote industrial upgrading. This is essentially the essence of economic recession; creative destruction is occurring.

Career interruptions can also become opportunities for skill upgrades. Last year, after the closure of my hedge fund, I chose to start a business, turning to AI learning and Python programming to achieve a career transition. This shows that as long as time is invested, even at 58, continuous learning can break age limits and open new career paths. For job seekers, mastering AI skills will significantly enhance competitiveness.

Anthony Pompliano: The Trump team secured trillions in investment commitments in the Middle East, which may not be realized in the short term, but under the backdrop of tax increases, the U.S. is still seen as an open market. Do these countries view the U.S. as a partner or an opponent? Is this perception important for economic development?

Jordi Visser: A cautious attitude should be maintained towards any phased investment data. The U.S. net international investment position has reached negative $27 trillion, and this verifiable data indicates that global capital has deeply intervened. If the dollar continues to depreciate, U.S. productive assets held abroad will face systemic devaluation risks.

Currently, there is a lack of effective solutions to the debt and fiscal deficit issues, and the weakness of the dollar will show progressive characteristics. Although the Federal Reserve has not restarted quantitative easing, it is only reducing the reinvestment scale of maturing bonds by $5 billion per week. This "nominal tightening" policy is inherently consistent with the strategy of Asian and European investors gradually reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries—maturing funds may not be fully reinvested.

More noteworthy is the global competitive landscape of the AI industry. The technological advantage of U.S. startups is facing global competition, and European developers are fully capable of developing products similar to Cursor and Replit. If the market position of Mag7 companies is shaken, global income redistribution will trigger a restructuring of capital flow patterns, and this structural change is far more strategically significant than the short-term scale of investment inflows.

Disclaimer

The content of this article does not represent the views of ChainCatcher. The opinions, data, and conclusions in the text represent the personal positions of the original author or interviewee. The compiler maintains a neutral stance and does not endorse their accuracy. This does not constitute any professional advice or guidance, and readers should exercise caution based on independent judgment. This compilation is for knowledge-sharing purposes only; readers should strictly comply with the laws and regulations of their respective regions and refrain from participating in any illegal financial activities.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。