The Paradox of Uncertainty: The Evolving Hedging Role of Cryptocurrency in a Divided World

CN
12 hours ago

In a fragmented world economy, the demand for borderless, neutral financial instruments is growing, with rising tariffs and pressure on alliances.

Editor's Note: An article by Cobo COO Lily Z. King was published on the South China Morning Post website on May 20, providing an in-depth analysis of the rise of crypto assets as "digital gold" and new financial infrastructure against the backdrop of current global economic fragmentation.

In recent months, the global financial system has undergone dramatic changes, highlighting the increasingly important role of digital assets. The scale of Bitcoin spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds that allow investors to indirectly invest in Bitcoin) in the U.S. has exploded, with assets under management surpassing $120 billion, reflecting a significant shift in investor behavior.

At the same time, the trading volume of stablecoins soared to over $27 trillion last year, exceeding the total transaction volume of Visa and Mastercard. In Asia, jurisdictions like Hong Kong have taken the lead by issuing exchange licenses, establishing stablecoin regulatory frameworks, and approving cryptocurrency ETFs, striving to position themselves as regional hubs for the digital asset economy.

These are not isolated events; they reflect a broader reassessment of the practical value of cryptocurrencies in an era of increasing economic fragmentation and uncertainty. We might call it the "paradox of uncertainty": digital assets are moving from the fringes of speculation to the mainstream, unexpectedly becoming a hedge against systemic risk.

As governments around the world erect barriers to trade and capital flows, blockchain is quietly building a "highway" to facilitate global capital movement. Gold remains the traditional safe-haven asset, but it cannot complete cross-border transactions in minutes, nor can it bypass financial system restrictions in times of crisis.

The enthusiastic response from investors to Bitcoin spot ETFs indicates the appeal of the concept of "digital gold." When U.S. regulators approved such products last January, many skeptics predicted a tepid market response. However, the reality is that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has rapidly grown, with assets under management exceeding $65 billion, making it the largest Bitcoin spot ETF in the world.

Beyond the "digital gold" narrative, the true revolutionary significance of cryptocurrencies lies in their ability to construct a new financial system independent of traditional financial intermediaries. At the core of this system are stablecoins: blockchain tokens pegged to fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar.

The stablecoin market has rapidly expanded from $2 billion in 2019 to over $200 billion in circulation today, becoming an indispensable financial tool in markets where local currencies are unstable or cross-border capital flows are restricted.

The business community has keenly sensed this trend. In October last year, Visa launched the "Visa Tokenised Asset Platform" to help banks issue and manage fiat-pegged digital tokens; last month, fintech company Stripe began testing stablecoin payment solutions in emerging markets, making it easier for businesses to access U.S. dollars through digital tokens. Mastercard also introduced new features to support stablecoin transactions.

The dual role of cryptocurrencies as a hedge and an innovative platform is most vividly reflected in Hong Kong. In a very short time, Hong Kong has transformed from a cautious observer to a leader in the regulation and application of cryptocurrencies globally.

Since 2020, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has issued licenses to 10 virtual asset trading platforms, bringing cryptocurrency trading for individual and institutional investors under regulatory oversight. As Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan stated at a recent Web3 event, this move aligns with Hong Kong's strategy to build a "thriving digital asset ecosystem" while strengthening investor protection mechanisms.

On February 19, 2025, Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan attended the opening ceremony of the Consensus conference organized by Coindesk at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre. This marks the first time in five years that this heavyweight conference in the crypto industry has been held outside the U.S.

Hong Kong has adopted a diverse and pragmatic strategy. In April last year, it became one of the first jurisdictions in the world to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. In December last year, the Hong Kong government introduced a stablecoin bill requiring issuers of fiat-pegged stablecoins to maintain sufficient reserves and ensure user redemption rights, establishing one of the most advanced stablecoin regulatory frameworks globally.

At the end of November last year, the Hong Kong Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau released a consultation document proposing tax exemptions on cryptocurrency and other alternative asset gains for hedge funds, private equity funds, and family offices, clearly signaling the strategic intent to position Hong Kong as a digital asset hub amid tensions in Sino-Western relations.

This momentum has continued to heat up this year. In February 2025, the Hong Kong SFC released a regulatory roadmap containing 12 initiatives aimed at further promoting the development and safety of the virtual asset industry. This roadmap includes a licensing system for over-the-counter (OTC) trading and crypto asset custody, as well as improved insurance and compensation mechanisms for virtual asset service providers.

The Hong Kong case is particularly significant due to its dual strategic value. First, developing a robust digital asset industry can serve as a financial hedge against global financial fragmentation and uncertainty while reducing Hong Kong's reliance on traditional banking systems that may be influenced by major power politics. If the international financial system experiences factional splits in the future, Hong Kong can still rely on cryptocurrency infrastructure, including stablecoins, to continue facilitating capital flows.

Second, developing the digital asset industry has also become an important engine for driving financial innovation and long-term competitiveness. Hong Kong has not only issued the world's first government-led tokenized green bond but has also launched a pilot project for e-HKD to explore the development path of central bank digital currencies. Meanwhile, local banks and fintech companies are actively piloting the application of blockchain in scenarios such as credit, trade financing, and clearing and settlement.

In an era of dramatic changes in the global alliance landscape, Hong Kong's positioning in cryptocurrencies is not only a risk hedge but also a strategic investment in future financial leadership.

As the global economy becomes increasingly fragmented, with rising tariff barriers and traditional alliances shaking, the market's demand for borderless, neutral financial instruments is also rapidly growing. As a product born out of the 2008 global financial crisis, crypto assets are designed to address such an uncertain era.

The next financial shock—whether it be a currency crisis, data channel blockades, or the weaponization of payment networks—will test the maturity of these alternative financial channels. But signs are already emerging: capital is flowing in faster, institutions are adapting, and regulatory pioneers like Hong Kong are consciously advancing their layouts.

We may be standing at the starting point of a historic reconstruction of reserve assets. Not to replace the U.S. dollar, but to hedge its limitations—a quietly advancing, gradually mainstream alternative.

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