Original Title: "Arthur Hayes on Bitcoin’s route to $200,000, holding gold and why ‘hated’ Ethereum is due for a comeback"

Source: Fortune

Translation by: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily

Arthur Hayes is an iconic figure in the early days of Bitcoin. He co-founded the offshore exchange BitMEX in 2014 and later faced legal issues for violating U.S. regulatory rules. Recently, Hayes admitted to failing to establish adequate anti-money laundering controls, accepted probation, and paid fines, but he received a full pardon from Trump earlier this year.

Currently, Hayes focuses on managing the family fund Maelstrom while remaining a highly influential figure in the crypto asset space. Fortune contributor Anna Tutova interviewed him during the Token-2049 event in Dubai, where Hayes shared his views on the current market — including predicting that BTC could reach $200,000 in the short term and potentially exceed $1 million by 2028.

In the interview, Hayes also analyzed the ETH and altcoin markets and explained his decision to allocate 20% of his assets to gold.

Here is the full interview, which has been condensed and edited.

Q1: On the Real Deficit of the U.S.

Anna: You referred to the recent borrowing operations of the U.S. Treasury as a "smoke and mirrors" tactic. Why?

Arthur Hayes: The Treasury has been depleting its "checking account" (Treasury General Account, TGA) and using "extraordinary measures" (government projects with insufficient funds) to circumvent borrowing limits, causing the TGA to drop from $750 billion to $450 billion this quarter. This means $300 billion in spending has not been realized through new debt, and the actual borrowing scale far exceeds official data.

This is quite confusing. Because we are in a debt ceiling period, theoretically, the U.S. government cannot net increase borrowing, but they maintain spending through various accounting tricks without breaching the ceiling. From January to March 2025, the Treasury's borrowing scale was 22% higher than the same period last year, and the deficit is actually expanding.

Q2: On Market Liquidity

Anna: What does this mean for Bitcoin?

Arthur Hayes: I believe the actual borrowing needs of the U.S. government are much larger than what is publicly reported, so Treasury Secretary Bessent will have to issue more debt and leverage the banking system to the maximum for this debt. The end result is a further flood of global dollar liquidity because the U.S. government is increasing spending.

In short, this is the essence of the repurchase operations, and it is why I believe it will enhance market liquidity. Based on this, I judge that Bitcoin bottomed on April 9, and as the government continues to borrow and Bessent ensures low-cost financing, Bitcoin's price will continue to rise significantly.

Q3: On the Altcoin Season

Anna: So, what price does Bitcoin need to reach to kick off the altcoin season? What are the key factors that will drive the altcoin season?

Arthur Hayes: I believe Bitcoin needs to break through $110,000 and continue to rise to the $150,000 to $200,000 range. I expect this to happen in the summer or early third quarter of this year, after which funds will start rotating into various altcoins.

Q4: On Bull Market Growth Expectations

Anna: Do you think the upcoming altcoin season will see a crazy supercycle surge like in 2021? Or will it just be a slight rebound?

Arthur Hayes: It is unlikely to replicate the 2021 scenario where all coins surged 100 times. The market will see new narrative hotspots, and some coins may skyrocket, but there is a reason why those long-stagnant "dinosaur coins" in your portfolio are not rising. Many projects are overvalued, have low circulation, lack real users and revenue, and are merely relying on exchange listings for speculation. Their prices have already dropped 95%, and I don't think they will perform well in the next cycle.

Q5: On Personal Return Expectations

Anna: What is your expected return rate in this market cycle? What target price and return rate do you usually set?

Arthur Hayes: At least to outperform Bitcoin's growth. If we decide to allocate funds, the target assets must be able to exceed Bitcoin's return rate.

Q6: On Trump

Anna: What are your expectations for Trump's crypto policies?

Arthur Hayes: His team should introduce crypto-friendly policies, but that doesn't mean that the specific projects you hold will necessarily appreciate, nor does it mean that policies will progress according to your expected timeline.

Currently, market expectations are too high; some people even think crypto policy will be Trump's top priority. But don't forget that Trump is a politician; he has many higher-priority matters to deal with, and everyone needs to be patient.

Q7: On Gold

Anna: In the context of increasing market uncertainty, we have seen a significant rise in gold. Are you holding gold assets, or are you completely focused on cryptocurrencies?

Arthur Hayes: I have long held gold, storing physical gold bars in a vault, and I also hold a large number of gold mining stocks — considering the surge in gold prices, these assets are still undervalued. I believe there is still significant upside for gold, as central banks around the world are continuing to accumulate.

More importantly, I expect the U.S. to significantly revalue its gold reserves, achieving debt dilution through the depreciation of the dollar against gold. By the end of this market cycle, gold prices could reach $10,000 to $20,000.

Gold accounts for about 20% of my personal investment portfolio.

Q8: On ETH vs SOL

Anna: That’s quite a high proportion! There is a lot of debate in the market about ETH and SOL; which one do you favor more?

Arthur Hayes: I believe ETH has more upside potential, even though it is currently under scrutiny — everyone thinks it is ineffective, and the development team has made repeated mistakes. The reality is that it still maintains the highest on-chain locked value (TVL), has the largest developer community, and is the most secure PoS blockchain. Indeed, despite its price performance being disappointing since 2020.

SOL has clearly performed well, but if I were to allocate new fiat capital now, I believe ETH's growth may surpass SOL's in the upcoming bull market over the next 18-24 months.

Q9: On $1 Million BTC

Anna: You previously predicted that Bitcoin would reach $1 million. When do you think this target will be achieved?

Arthur Hayes: I believe Bitcoin will reach $1 million before the end of Trump's presidential term, which is by the end of 2028.

Q10: On Annual Trend Expectations

Anna: How do you expect the specific trends in the crypto market to unfold this year?

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin's dominance will continue to rise, potentially approaching $200,000 in this wave of growth. After that, the altcoin season will arrive, and we will see some interesting phenomena. By the end of the year, Bitcoin's target price is around $250,000.

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