Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"
Bitcoin has been in a continuous downtrend since January, but the surge past $91,000 on April 22 marks the first breakthrough of a higher high this year and may signal the beginning of a new long-term uptrend.
Bitcoin formed a higher high pattern after breaking the previous lower high and the resistance level at $88,500. However, the real factor supporting the price increase is the buying volume from various groups in the Bitcoin market.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $381 million on April 21, a level not seen since January 30.
The increase in spot Bitcoin inflows and the rise in Bitcoin prices indicate that institutional demand for Bitcoin may be recovering, and the trend change in ETFs could potentially offset the selling pressure that has been suppressing Bitcoin prices over the past few months.
However, retail investor demand (buying volume between $0 and $10,000) remains below 0%, indicating that low-volume buyers have not yet returned. Over the past year, these investors have typically lagged behind Bitcoin price breakthroughs, but once the buying volume turns positive, they usually strengthen price momentum.
CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn pointed out that the current rebound is driven by leverage rather than spot trading volume. Data from Glassnode also shows that Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) increased by $2.4 billion in less than 36 hours.
To ensure that Bitcoin prices can firmly hold above $90,000, the current gap between futures traders and retail traders needs to be reduced.
Bitcoin may rise "70% to 80%"
In the long term, Hitesh Malviya, founder of DYOR crypto, stated that if Bitcoin maintains an MVRV ratio of 2, BTC could rise another 70% to 80% in the next six weeks.
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is a key on-chain indicator that compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its realized capitalization—the realized capitalization refers to the price at which Bitcoin was last traded. Historically, when the MVRV exceeds 3.7, it usually indicates market overvaluation and a peak, while values close to 2 often appear before strong price rebounds.
Bitcoin's MVRV score remained above 2 from October 2024 to February 2025, a period that coincided with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high. Recently, as the market corrected, this indicator fell below 2, but it is currently attempting to reclaim this key level.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) breaks downtrend, surges to $92,600, who is driving this price momentum?
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