1. Market Observation

Keywords: BNB, ETH, BTC

The BSC ecosystem remains robust, with He Yi initially promoting ecological Meme projects. Influenced by his comments and attention, the Meme coins BUBB and TAT on the Binance Chain have become recent hits. Meanwhile, competition within the Solana ecosystem has intensified, with Pump.fun launching the native decentralized exchange PumpSwap, and Raydium is developing a Meme coin issuance platform called LaunchLab.

In terms of the overall market, BTC has recently been fluctuating around $85,000, closely following stock market trends. The latest data from CryptoQuant shows that the Bitcoin bull market score index has dropped to its lowest point in two years, at just 20, down 23% from its peak. Historical data indicates that a strong rebound only occurs when this index is above 60, and the current prolonged low may signal the formation of a bear market trend. From an institutional trading perspective, a report from Greeks.live shows that large trades are primarily concentrated in the Bitcoin options market, with a notable buy risk reversal trade amounting to $33.445 million, indicating that institutional investors are actively positioning to hedge against downside risks. Community reactions show a divergence in market outlook between Chinese and English-speaking investors, with some closely monitoring the critical level of $83-85K, while others expect a brief rise in Bitcoin before continued fluctuations, with some aggressive views predicting Bitcoin could rise to $444,000. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently expressed the view that Bitcoin's $77,000 may have formed a temporary bottom. However, he also cautioned investors to remain flexible and hold sufficient cash, as the stock market may require further adjustments, which often impacts the cryptocurrency market.

The SEC recently made a significant decision, determining that PoW mining activities do not constitute a securities offering. At the same time, NYSE Arca has submitted a rule change application to the SEC for the Bitwise Ethereum ETF, with BlackRock's digital asset head Robert Mitchnick stating that the Ethereum ETF has performed poorly since its launch last July, primarily due to issues with obtaining staking yields. Additionally, Ripple's CEO expects to launch an XRP ETF by the end of 2025, while Bitnomial has announced the launch of the first XRP futures product regulated by the CFTC in the U.S.

On a macro level, QCP Capital analysis points out that the Federal Reserve's decision to begin tapering its quantitative tightening (QT) program in April provides a significant upward catalyst for the market, which was also one of the key factors driving Bitcoin's price above $85,000. However, considering the Fed's expected three rate cuts in 2025 and the current divergence in market sentiment, traders need to pay special attention to the performance of price support levels and manage risks accordingly. Meanwhile, retail investor sentiment remains cautious, with the latest survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showing bullish sentiment at only 21.6%, well below the historical average of 37.5%, while bearish sentiment has reached 58.1%, remaining above 57% for the fourth consecutive week.

2. Key Data (as of March 21, 13:30 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $84,384.27 (Year-to-date -9.82%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $2.4648 billion

• Ethereum: $1,972.88 (Year-to-date -40.89%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $1.3189 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 31 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC 2 sat/vB, ETH 0.44 Gwei

• Market Share: BTC 60.6%, ETH 8.6%

• Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, AUCTION, BTC, VANA, LAYER

• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 0.9818

• Sector Performance: SocialFi sector up 3.25%, RWA sector up 2.48%

• 24-hour Liquidation Data: A total of 83,084 people liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $191 million, including $64.04 million in BTC and $33.12 million in ETH.

3. ETF Flows (as of March 20 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: $166 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$12.4093 million

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Launchpool will launch Nillion (NIL) and will list NIL spot trading pairs on March 24

• Binance will list six perpetual contracts including TUT/USDT and BID/USDT, with a maximum leverage of 25x

• Starknet is about to launch STRK Staking V2 voting, with a testnet launch planned in a few weeks

• The SEC's cryptocurrency working group will hold its first roundtable meeting on March 21

• Binance supports the renaming of BinaryX (BNX) and token exchange for Four (FORM)

• BNB Chain: TVL incentive program extended by one month, deadline is March 21

• Korean gaming company Wemade's WEMIX token performance bonus dispute lawsuit will have its next debate

• The Ethereum Foundation has extended the application date for the 2025 academic funding program to March 23

• Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens at 8 AM Beijing time on March 21, accounting for 1.39% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $13.4 million;

• SPACE ID (ID) will unlock 78.49 million tokens at 8 AM Beijing time on March 22, accounting for 18.23% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $19.3 million;

• MANTRA (OM) will unlock 5 million tokens at 8 AM Beijing time on March 23, accounting for 0.51% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $32.8 million;

• Murasaki (MURA) will unlock 10 million tokens at 8 AM Beijing time on March 23, accounting for 1.00% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $7.4 million;

Today's top gainers among the top 500 by market cap: Orca (ORCA) up 67.54% in 24 hours, Bone ShibaSwap (BONE) up 28.10%, X Empire (X) up 23.78%, Vana (VANA) up 19.32%, LayerZero (ZRO) up 18.49%

5. Hot News

• Deputy Director of the National Financial and Development Laboratory: Bitcoin is a uniquely styled financial asset

• Bithumb to launch Pax Gold (PAXG) in the Korean won market

• A trader turned $304 into $482,000 by trading BUBB tokens, achieving a return of 1586 times

• BlackRock's Digital Asset Head: Approval for staking could be a "huge leap" for the Ethereum ETF

• A whale/institution holding ETH for 8 years transferred 34,000 ETH to Coinbase, achieving a 44-fold return

• YZi Labs announces Jane He as its General Partner to lead biotechnology investments

• NYSE Arca applies to the SEC to add staking functionality for the Bitwise Ethereum ETF

• Coinbase adds ALT, PENDLE, and L3 to its asset roadmap

• Tether becomes the seventh largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds in 2024, surpassing countries like Canada and Norway

• The SEC states that proof-of-work mining does not involve securities law

• Coinbase adds Freysa (FAI) to its asset roadmap

• Canary has submitted the S1 form application for the PENGU ETF

• Walrus Protocol announces token economic model: 10% allocated for Walrus user airdrops

• The TON Foundation, based on Telegram, raises over $400 million through token sales

• ZachXBT: "Hyperliquid high-leverage whale" may be fraudster William Parker

• Binance Alpha has added BR (Bedrock)

• Telegram's monthly active users exceed 1 billion, boosting BOMBIE to become the top revenue-generating mini-game in the TON ecosystem

• Binance Launchpool will launch Nillion (NIL) and will list NIL spot trading pairs on March 24

• Binance will list six perpetual contracts including TUT/USDT and BID/USDT, with a maximum leverage of 25x

• SHELL market maker's publicly disclosed buyback address has reached a balance of 19.95 million tokens, completing 74% of the buyback progress

• Binance launches the first phase of the voting listing event, with the first voting listing pool specifically targeting tokens based on the BNB chain

• UNI token holders approve $165.5 million in new foundation funding, laying the groundwork for a "fee switch"

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