Author: Haotian

The continuous decline of the AI Agent sector feels like a dark cloud pressing down on the city, causing pain and despair to the point of suffocation. Everyone wants to know what is happening. Unfortunately, no one can answer this question. Here, I will analyze the unfavorable factors currently facing the AI Agent sector and provide some operational guidelines for holders for future reference:

Unfavorable Factors:

1) The disruption caused by the $TRUMP coin has broken the narrative evolution rhythm of AI Agents, which is undoubtedly the biggest external factor. Due to the lack of liquidity on-chain and the blockade from centralized exchanges (CEX), after a slew of celebrity MEME coins emerged, most people FOMO sold their AI Agent holdings to chase new coins. This cycle has destroyed the stable development environment for AI Agents.

2) The short-term "fast-track" MEME asset issuance method has lost its value anchoring, which is an internal factor that cannot be ignored. On one hand, the evolution speed of AI Agents has been too rapid; in just three months, it has transitioned from pure AI MEME to individual AI, framework standards, DeFi, Metaverse, GameFi, and other sub-sectors, without enough time to build technical value support and realize it.

On the other hand, under the premise of no value support for speculation, "fast-track" has become an inevitable path for most projects, where a project can reach 50m-300m just based on a GitHub repo and a vision statement provided by the developers. This has led to a loss of real value judgment for projects, which can only operate based on some PVP methodologies. Ultimately, many good projects face the dilemma of being crushed after a fast-track, and relying on developers to push good news at this point is likely to be extremely difficult.

Of course, there are also macro factors contributing to the overall market downturn and the collective withdrawal of liquidity from high-risk on-chain assets.

In summary, whether external or internal unfavorable factors, they have turned what was originally expected to be a new AI infrastructure market with PVE and value judgment standards into an indiscriminate PVP gambling market. The current despair, torment, and helplessness are all evidence of this.

Future Operational Reference Guide:

After clarifying the broader context, it should be clear that asking whether the AI Agent sector is going to zero is meaningless. Good PVE targets will only be "dormant" under short-term environmental pressure, while poor PVP targets may still emerge from the many assets on the brink of zero. So, what should we do next?

1) Look for good targets with value anchoring support; indeed, it is about finding gold in a pile of garbage. Even in an upward trend, fast-tracking can cause garbage projects to be inflated by conspiracy groups, overshadowing the inherent brilliance of good assets. However, in a downward trend, the likelihood of value targets "popping up" increases, such as finding projects that continue to build and release good news during a major downturn, projects where developers continue to innovate despite a passive secondary market, and projects with growing on-chain wallet addresses despite continuous declines.

2) Organize your portfolio, decisively abandon fantasies about garbage assets, and switch to valuable coins. Understand that even if AI Agents make a strong comeback, some garbage assets will inevitably become discarded. Only projects with value support have the potential to turn around. Take advantage of the downturn to narrow your holdings, focusing your resources on high-value assets, which at least have a chance of recovering your investment. For specifics, refer to the previously shared portfolio allocation logic.

3) Stop FOMOing into new fast-track projects. When the entire sector is in decline, why should retail investors believe that a project that quickly reaches hundreds of millions in value is rational? Moreover, there is little difference between strong on-chain fast-track projects and those high FDV VC coin projects on exchanges. The significant on-chain opportunities refer to the chance to discover quality Alpha projects ahead of others; the risks of FOMOing into these projects are even more perilous than in the secondary market.

4) Sit patiently and wait for the flowers to bloom. The significance of the AI Agent sector to crypto is enduring and profound; the larger trend cannot be changed. I have reiterated this viewpoint many times in previous articles, so I won't elaborate further. If you can accomplish points 1, 2, and 3, all you need to do is wait for the opportunity. Nothing more.

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