Author: 0xTodd, Partner at Nothing Research

In the past week, many friends have called me to inquire about the market. I feel it's necessary to publicly share my thoughts and disclose my views on the current market situation—[What exactly has changed] [Future developments].

Long-time followers among my family know that I am a long-term investor. Therefore, since 2019, I have an annual strategy that I update every year. The 2024-2025 strategy is roughly what this article covers, for discussion with family.

1. DeepSeek Burst the Bubble

Once DeepSeek came out, regardless of whether it truly used $5 million to train such an AI, the narrative is as follows: [Algorithmic improvement] has at least temporarily outperformed [Computational power improvement].

Don't get caught up in whether this is real—since the market unanimously acknowledges the $5 million, you have to treat it as true. By the end of 2024, aside from memes, I reluctantly admit that there is objectively only one narrative left: AI Agent, which can be seen as the hope of the entire village. However, no one anticipated that the AI Agent would be ruthlessly shattered by the neighboring true AI track, DeepSeek. The team at DS consists of real IQ 200 individuals, fresh graduates from Tsinghua and Peking University, and numerous Olympiad medalists.

In contrast, our industry is filled with second-tier programmers who are either laid off or secretly working side jobs as AI engineers, so sometimes we are forced to operate at an IQ of 50. So…

On January 27, I tearfully took profits on all my AI token positions. I didn't sell at the peak and ended up selling after a significant pullback, so it would be a lie to say I wasn't heartbroken. But the colder truth is that this has turned our entire AI Agent track into a joke, and that might be true. The reason the "narrative" is "narrated" before the "event" is that the "event" hasn't materialized yet, and we can only rely on the "narrative." Once the story can no longer be told, the decline of the track becomes truly irreversible.

2. The President and the Mob of the President

I don't know how everyone felt during the New Year, but my physical experience is that many friends and family were asking how to register on BN or OKX, simply because they wanted to buy Trump coins. The last time they were this crazy was during the National Day holiday when they wanted to open accounts to jump into A-shares.

Shanghai Composite Index trend Source: Tencent Securities

If I remember correctly, these brave souls who entered the A-shares on October 8 are still stuck at that peak. After taking profits on AI, to be honest, the more I thought about it, the more I felt uneasy, and then I saw this post.

In summary: The president seems to be losing a lot, but there are two possible reasons:

1. He is not making money in the way you can see;
2. He is a fool;

Anyway, I know the answer cannot possibly be 2. Yes! Memes are now being played by the president, and he can also make money through channels unknown to us. To be fair, can our meme play be compared to sitting at the same table as Trump? A Thai hippopotamus, an American squirrel, a bottle of longevity medicine that extends the life of flies—can they really sit at the same table as Trump, who is firmly in the Oval Office?

During the New Year, adults sat at one table, and children at another. Adults drank fine liquor, while children could only drink Sprite. So, that day, I basically sold off all my meme holdings. My meme positions once had huge unrealized gains, but due to actively lowering my IQ to 50, I didn't complete the great retreat but kept joining the great revolution. It felt like a dream.

3. A Top Signal: The High School Kid Made Millions

I believe that all family members who play memes, even those who don't, have heard about this recent legendary story. A high school kid sat idle for a month and suddenly hit the jackpot with Jelly, making millions at a very low cost.

Of course, as the story spread, it became more and more outrageous, and there were more rumors. I can't guarantee that this is 100% true, but I know the feeling is right.

Looking back at the 69K historical peak just 1-3 days before, I was reflecting:

• Interns easily outperform fund managers;
• Grassroots community contributors of ENS received millions from airdrops;

At that moment, it was just like this moment.

I liked this post; a TIME editor (who could also be a hacker) could instantly harvest countless SOL with a fake tweet. I ask you, what does this mean?

It's not that making money is wrong—experts can always make money, even at the bottom of a bear market. But if the subject changes to ordinary people: the intern makes big money, the ENS contributor makes big money, the high school kid makes big money, the editor makes big money.

It means: 【At this moment, everyone's hands are particularly loose】 Friends who often play cards know that only when there are extremely high unrealized gains will people become loose with their hands.

This indicates that the greed index has truly reached its peak. This is a super top signal.

So, on the 30th, I cleared out almost all my altcoins, keeping only BTC and a small portion of mainstream coins like ETH/SOL/DOGE/exchange tokens. Although there were still losses, I managed to leave behind a few small victories. I admire the high school kid's brilliant operation, and I also respect the market's iron law regarding this alternative investment.

4. Questions About BN and BN's Response

Honestly, I don't want to discuss this topic.

As a former CEX practitioner, I have seen this consultant-listing-dumping routine too many times, from initial anger to gradual numbness; I have long since become desensitized.

However, in the past, this kind of thing was kept under the table, belonging to "small greed and small corruption as a lubricant for development";

It belonged to "water that is too clear has no fish," where a little murkiness beneath the surface was considered part of the game rules.

After all, we do not live in a utopia, nor in a vacuum. However, the most taboo thing about this is bringing it from under the table to the surface. I have no intention of criticizing BN or the leading figure, as this issue exists in almost every CEX.

If this were in the traditional world, to exaggerate, it would be a huge scandal that could lead to hundreds of layoffs and dozens of arrests. Perhaps the leading figure would have been better off not responding, learning from celebrities to handle it coldly, giving retail investors a glimmer of hope. But our industry is predominantly filled with skeptics, and a huge scandal is a heavy blow, striking hard at the hearts of every holder.

It has shattered the faith of many. Our industry really needs "gods" because it relies on consensus.

But when everyone discovers that the "servants" beneath the "gods" also want to make a quick buck, faith suddenly evaporates, and it quickly projects onto the "gods"—all the altcoins on BN are now facing immense skepticism and scrutiny from retail investors. If AI and HOOK are like this, can other coins really be any better?

5. Future Scenarios

If we follow the perspective of "carving a boat to seek a sword," this recent drop is very similar to May 19. I suggest everyone personally review the trends after May 19.

The trend after May 19, 2021, Source: Bitfinex

If we follow the May 19 script, the next phase will be a repeated two-month oscillation until even the most loyal are shaken out, followed by a new $Bitcoin ATH.

Of course, some people suspect this is the script of December 4, AKA the beginning of the bear market.

From my inner inclination, I hope this is like May 19. After all, the U.S. national strategic reserve for Bitcoin is becoming clearer; never underestimate the enormous impact of this matter, truly. Even if Bitcoin reaches $85K-$88K, I would still be willing to add some positions.

6. My Position Distribution

My current positions are:

40% BTC; 20% mainstream coins (ETH, SOL, DOGE, BNB/MNT); 40% stablecoin investments;

Bitcoin is my eternal faith. I think I will never sell BTC again, nor will I engage in swing trading. The reason for holding ETH: to be honest, my faith in ETH is weakening.

However, objectively speaking, the president's DeFi project is buying ETH.

I don't know how many family members are trading U.S. stocks, but many regret not following the trades of [Nancy Pelosi, the stock market goddess of Capitol Hill].

Image source: 天下杂志

Pelosi's highlight moment was as the Speaker of the House, which is the third highest position in American politics.

And now Trump is the legitimate president, this crypto president is holding a significant amount of ETH (although it has now been deposited into untraceable Coinbase custody), which cannot be underestimated.

Secondly, ETH has dropped to its current position, and I feel it has reached the peak of FUD; there may be thoughts of a rebound. I can't buy when no one cares, but at least I won't sell when no one cares.

The reason for holding SOL: there is a small probability of an ETF; however, the cooling of the AI narrative and the short-term slump of MEME are two small clouds of gloom.

The reason for holding DOGE: Grayscale has launched a Dogecoin trust, and Doge also has a small probability of an ETF;

Additionally, Musk is working hard in the D.O.G.E department; being in the same car as the world's richest man and "Director of the U.S. Development and Reform Commission," I think I can sleep well.

The reason for holding exchange tokens: to be blunt, exchanges have no possibility of stepping onto a bigger stage. Coinbase will not list BNB, and Binance will not list MNT. However, exchanges are the only institutions in our industry that can make money and provide benefits; if a bear market truly arrives, exchange tokens are relatively more resilient, and occasionally an IEO can help recover losses. In a bear market, we can only rely on this.

7. Harsh Perspective: The Good Days for Old Investors Are Over

Aside from the above, I will likely not hold any altcoins in large positions in the short term— the reason is simple: inflation is too fast.

The speed at which new users and new funds enter the market cannot keep up with the speed at which these token printing maniacs are printing.

Source: Decrypt

A few days ago, there was a statistic showing that the most powerful account on Pump Fun issued 17,000 tokens in three months. Not 170, not 1,700, but 17,000! His contribution alone may exceed the total number of tokens issued during the entire bull market of 2017. Why have the investment strategies of old investors failed?

There are too many choices! Too many angles!

Even within the same angle, there are N different CA; how can old investors' altcoins compete?

The strategy that old investors love the most: buy a mid-cap altcoin at a valuation of 100M or 200M. Hold it for 2-3 months, betting that it will outperform Bitcoin. However, now it seems that even ETH may not outperform.

And the strategy that Marshal P loves the most: buy a project valued at 10K in the internal market. Run away 30 minutes later. Real men never look back at explosions. Clearly, in today's environment of massive token inflation, Marshal P far surpasses old investors. I do not call on everyone to become P's little generals; I just hope everyone at least doesn't become an old investor.

8. Best Position: 50% Bitcoin + 50% Stablecoin Investments

Additionally, I sincerely suggest that everyone hold a certain amount of USDT to get through the upcoming time. You must accept a fact: no one can truly sell at the super peak.

The peak comes every four years, and in over a thousand days, finding a day to sell gives you a 1/1000 chance; those who can do it are naturally few and far between, all are super lucky. At this stage, half a position is the best choice. You invest 50% of your principal in financial products; we won't talk about mining or arbitrage.

Let's just do the simplest Ethena USDE, which Pendle can currently offer an 18% interest rate. If Pendle is too lazy to deal with, just throw it into AAVE or mainstream CEX financial products, which can still yield 10%. The other 50% should be primarily in Bitcoin, quietly waiting for the day the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve arrives.

With both interest cash flow and dreams and faith, you will definitely feel comfortable.

Of course, you can also allocate another 5% to a few altcoins you truly believe in, whether it's ETH, SOL, DOGE, or any coin you have faith in. You can also allocate another 5% to play a few rounds of PVP; if you win, enjoy it once, and if you lose, consider it consumption, keeping your hand in shape—how wonderful is that?

Finally, this forms a distribution resembling a Tai Chi diagram.

PS: This is also the shape I want to gradually adjust my holdings to. Source: 0xTodd

9. In Conclusion

I am relatively satisfied with my current positions, as this is my eighth year in the crypto industry, and after such a long time, I have gained some experience. The only regret I have is that I was playing in Osaka during the New Year and got lazy, not organizing these thoughts and sharing them in a timely manner.

The same strategy, if mentioned a few days ago, could have helped many people, but saying it a few days later turns it into a post-event review. However, it is never too late to mend the fold.

I hope every family member can achieve their own great results in the crypto market. Of course, if you can't achieve great results, then retaining some small results and earning some spiritual wealth and social wealth is also worthwhile. Finally, I wish all family members—a prosperous Year of the Snake, with the golden snake dancing wildly.

Todd

February 5, 2025

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。