In most cases, the opening price remains at its peak. If you can acquire the tokens within 5 minutes, it is advisable to take profits at the opening.

Written by: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily

Recently launched MOVE and ME have showcased the enthusiasm of the crowd in a bull market and the ferocity of new tokens. Looking back, for example, the new token OL on OKX left a deep impression, as it surged high at the opening, briefly retraced, and then continued to rise in a "bulldozer" manner.

So, does the strategy for new tokens change in a bull market, meaning there is no need to sell early at the opening as before? Odaily will review several new tokens launched on recent exchanges in this article to attempt to answer this question.

Basic Situation Description

This article selects new tokens launched on Binance, OKX, Bybit, and those launched simultaneously across the network, limited to the past two months.

• Simultaneous launches include MOVE and ME;

• Binance includes SCR and USUAL (pre-market);

• OKX includes MAJOR, MORPHO, MEMEFI, OL, and X (in fact, many were launched simultaneously but do not include Binance, etc.);

• Bybit selected MOZ (Lumoz) and XION.

In terms of time, the closing prices of the above tokens were recorded at 5 minutes, 1 hour, 24 hours, 7 days, and the current price (as of December 16, 3 PM Beijing time).

Then, the percentage change of each token's 1-hour closing price relative to the 5-minute closing price was compared to determine whether it was "the peak at the opening."

Is the opening still the peak?

The price fluctuation data of each token is shown in the figure below. The average decline of the 1-hour closing price relative to the 5-minute closing price is 14%, while the average decline of the 24-hour closing price is 7%.

It can be seen that in the short term, the opening 5 minutes is still a high point. If you can acquire the tokens during that time, it is still advisable to sell.

There are eight tokens that have been online for 7 days, and these tokens have an average decline of 8.7% in their 7-day closing price relative to the 5-minute closing price, indicating that the mid-term situation remains unchanged, and the opening is still a high point.

Will the situation change if we extend the time frame?

The average increase of the current price relative to the 5-minute closing price for 11 tokens has reached 25%, but excluding OL, it turns into an average decline of 21%, with the decline further expanding.

The opening is still the peak

In summary, for most tokens, the opening is still likely to be the highest point. The bull market may bring a higher opening price, rather than long-term gains. Additionally, one or two months is insufficient to dissipate the overly enthusiastic prices brought about by the opening. According to statistical patterns, it is still recommended to sell if you can acquire the tokens within 5 minutes.

Estimated Price of New Token VANA on Binance

Based on the past 21 periods of Binance Launchpool data, we estimate the price of VANA to be 15.9 USDT, corresponding to an FDV of 1.911 billion USD and an initial circulating market value of 479 million USD.

The calculation is as follows: the average annualized return over the past 21 periods is 96%. Assuming this period also has a 96% return; then based on the average amount of BNB invested in the past 21 periods and the BNB price of 726 USDT, to achieve the same annualized return, the price of VANA needs to reach:

16973725 × 726 ÷ 4080000 × 2 ÷ 365 × 96% = 15.93

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