Author | Fu Ruo, Odaily Planet Daily

As we approach 2025, in addition to Bitcoin successfully breaking the 100,000 mark, the NFT sector is also ushering in its year-end showdown.

The NFT blue-chip project Pudgy Penguins has announced that it will release its token PENGU in 2024. According to NFTgo data, the floor price of Lil Pudgys has risen by 17.6% in 24 hours, reaching 1.92 ETH; the floor price of Pudgy Penguins has increased by over 20%, reaching 18.5 ETH. The issuance of Pudgy Penguins' token has revitalized the NFT market, driving a 66% increase in daily trading volume in the NFT sector.

Odaily Planet Daily combines a series of recent initiatives from Pudgy Penguins to conduct an in-depth analysis of its upcoming token issuance and preliminarily estimates the market value of Pudgy Penguins.

"Fat Penguin" Token Issuance, Predicted Market Value Up to $1.5 Billion

Pudgy Penguins is an NFT project characterized by its cute penguin imagery. Despite experiencing lows such as team changes, under the leadership of new CEO Luca Netz, it has successfully positioned Pudgy Penguins among the top three in the NFT sector through a series of initiatives including IP incubation, game development, and launching toys on Amazon.

During the recent bear market, Pudgy Penguins demonstrated strong market resilience. The project not only maintained a certain level of popularity in the NFT market but also enhanced its brand's commercial value through multiple IP collaborations. For example, Pudgy Penguins launched an exclusive "Celebrity Gift Box" in collaboration with Walmart and introduced a limited edition Pudgy Penguins cookie gift box with the high-end cookie brand Last Crumb. These initiatives effectively expanded brand influence, allowing it to stand out in the competitive NFT market.

Now, the highly anticipated Pudgy Penguins token issuance is on the horizon. The official announcement states that the PENGU token will first be issued on Solana, with plans for a multi-chain strategy that will enable it on Ethereum and Abstract Chain in the future.

PENGU Token Economics

The total supply of the PENGU token is 88,888,888,888, with the specific token distribution as follows:

• Team (1-year lock-up period, 3-year vesting period): 17.8%
• Expansion: 4%
• FTT Holders: 0.35%
• Liquidity: 12.35%
• Public Coordination: 4%
• Pudgy Community: 25.9%
• Company (1-year lock-up, 3-year vesting period): 11.48%
• Other Communities: 24.12%

The proportion of the company and team is about 30%, while community airdrops account for a major portion of about 51%. There is no lock-up period for community airdrops, and NFT holders on social media generally express support for this token economic model, looking forward to the potential value of the airdropped tokens.

According to community user @BTCThinker88's analysis, the airdrop value of Pudgy Penguins' PENGU token is expected to be quite substantial, with each holder potentially receiving between $31,000 and $61,000 (approximately 7.9 ETH to 15.8 ETH); if Abstract Chain also provides token distribution for the penguin community, this could become one of the largest wealth creation events in 2024 following HYPE.

Based on this user's analysis, the estimated market value (FDV) of the PENGU token is between $1.5 billion and $3 billion, directly comparable to Apecoin's market value of $1.9 billion. If we calculate the total based on the current NFT market value, the market value of Lil Pudgys is approximately $160 million, and the market value of Pudgy Penguins is about $650 million, with a total market value of around $810 million. The market value of NFT projects under Apecoin is about $1.2 billion. By comparing NFT project market values to token market values, the market value of the PENGU token is expected to be around $1.3 billion; considering the potential increase in value during the early stages of token issuance, the initial market value of PENGU may be around $1.5 billion.

Is Token Issuance the Final Stop for "Fat Penguins"?

Previously, many well-known NFT projects have treated token issuance as their final stop. The correlation between the token and NFTs after issuance is not high, and in subsequent projects, the role of the token is minimal. This has led to market criticism: token issuance is seen as a "pension" pre-stored for the team by NFT projects.

For example, projects like BAYC and MEMEland performed well in the early stages of token issuance, but due to a decline in narrative and market enthusiasm later on, the subsequent market trends were not optimistic. The APE token of BAYC skyrocketed from 1 USDT to 28 USDT at launch, but as market enthusiasm waned, the price of APE also fell back.

In contrast, PENGU may not necessarily face the same fate after its token issuance. The Pudgy Penguins project has a unique sense of community involvement and a diversified development strategy, enhancing its long-term value through rich brand stories, game development, and collaborations with other brands. The official announcement states that Pudgy Toys will be back on Walmart shelves in 2025.

Additionally, Pudgy Penguins has planned a series of follow-up projects, such as launching the Web3 game Pudgy Party next year and developing new IPs, all of which will provide broader application scenarios for the PENGU token. Through these initiatives, Pudgy Penguins may view token issuance as a new starting point rather than an endpoint, further promoting brand growth and community engagement.

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