After Biden's departure, Harris has arrived.

After Biden's withdrawal from the selection, Trump has been in the spotlight recently. The story of his old opponent surrendering and narrowly escaping death has made him the shining male lead in life, showing Trump's self-satisfaction. The crypto world has also been boiling, with the positive sentiment sparked by the remarks of politicians at the previous Bitcoin conference. The highly anticipated presidential candidate, Trump, remains optimistic, and even his son has joined in, with the whole family rallying for the crypto field.

Unfortunately, the political circle has not been as enthusiastic as expected. On August 6th, Vice President Kamala Harris won the party's internal election, securing the Democratic Party's presidential nomination and officially stepping from behind the scenes to the forefront of the election. Although the crypto industry had high hopes for Trump, Harris, unlike the aging Biden, has shown outstanding performance in the polls.

According to the polling data summarized by the U.S. election information website "Real Clear Politics" as of August 6th, Harris led Trump by an average of 0.2 percentage points in national polls, but Trump led by 1.5 percentage points in the crucial "swing states." The close data has intensified the battle between the two sides. According to Xinhua News Agency, Harris and Trump are targeting about 98% of their campaign ads in the traditional "swing states." Among them, the small crypto voters have once again become the target of both parties' efforts.

From the current perspective, Trump has already positioned himself as the "crypto president" and gained the first-mover advantage. Harris, on the other hand, has been quite ambiguous, not attending the Bitcoin conference and not publicly expressing her attitude towards crypto. Her running mate, Tim Walz, also does not seem to be a crypto enthusiast.

Where will the flag of crypto ultimately fly? Clearly, the Democratic Party will never give up this part of the vote.

01. Harris, the politically correct buff

Before discussing her stance on crypto, let's briefly introduce Harris. Just looking at Harris, as the first black female vice president in U.S. history, she is quite legendary in her own right.

Kamala Harris at an event, source: White House website

Kamala Harris was born in 1964. Her father was a Jamaican immigrant of African descent, and her mother was a Tamil from southern India. Both of her parents were highly educated intellectuals and active participants in the American civil rights movement, advocating for racial equality and opposing racial segregation, which laid the foundation for Harris's own political beliefs.

As an adult, Harris attended Howard University, which primarily serves black students, where she studied political science and economics, and obtained a law degree in 1989. After graduation, she became a deputy district attorney in Alameda County, California, officially embarking on her political career.

As an African-American, Asian-American, and a woman, she is politically correct and has utilized her advantages, aligning herself with the more affable Obama and adopting the Chinese name "贺锦丽" to gain support from the Chinese-American community.

Setting aside the scandals, with her excellent speaking abilities and hard work, Harris's career has been smooth sailing. In 2003, Harris became the district attorney for the San Francisco area, and with the help of Obama, she was elected as the Attorney General of California in 2010, and was re-elected in 2014, becoming the first black woman to hold this position in the United States.

In 2019, the ambitious Harris officially announced her candidacy for the 2020 U.S. presidential election and gained popularity after sharply addressing Biden's racial issues in the party debates. However, due to her controversial tenure as a district attorney and her inconsistent political positions, and with an exceptionally strong lineup of Democratic candidates that year, Harris ultimately dropped out before the primaries.

However, although she did not win the presidency, she unexpectedly secured the position of vice president. After the 2020 Floyd shooting incident, a large-scale minority movement erupted in the United States. Therefore, with her natural advantage in this area and being a woman, Harris was chosen by Biden to balance the ticket.

During her time as vice president, as she was responsible for the complex immigration issue, Harris did not have any significant political achievements, did not become a political focus, and her voter attention was average. The party's evaluation of her was simply "a very typical vice president." Therefore, after Biden announced his withdrawal, there was also considerable controversy within the Democratic Party. However, from the current perspective, the Democratic Party is indeed facing a situation where they have no one else to turn to and can only bet on Harris. In taking over hastily, Harris even inherited 1,300 staff members and $96 million in funds who had previously worked for Biden's campaign, which has led to ridicule from Trump and the opposition.

In terms of political positions, Harris is in line with Biden, inheriting and continuing Biden's policies on taxation and foreign affairs. Compared to Trump's unilateralism, she emphasizes opposition to isolationism and advocates for international cooperation in foreign policy. However, she also shows innovation and conservatism in other aspects, highlighting personal differences. For example, in trade policy, Harris opposes free trade and has also put forward more radical green economic initiatives. In terms of advantages, unlike Biden, age is no longer a concern for her as a presidential candidate, and she is more favored by women and minorities. Recently, she also opened a TikTok account to connect with young voters and has gained 4 million followers.

Harris's TikTok account has attracted attention, source: TikTok

02. Harris on crypto, "in contact"

But when it comes to crypto, what is Harris's and her party's stance on crypto?

The fact is, to this day, Harris herself has not directly expressed her views on crypto, and based on the disclosed financial situation, the Harris family does not hold any crypto assets. However, this has led to numerous rumors about her stance.

One is the denial camp. Due to the Democratic Party's previous strict stance on crypto, many believe that Harris may also have a negative view of crypto. David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, even revealed that a major Democratic Party donor had privately disclosed Harris's negative views on cryptocurrencies, stating "Harris privately said that Bitcoin is the money of criminals." Trump also bluntly stated in a speech at a conference, "Harris is against crypto." As a result, Harris has been criticized by the crypto industry and ultimately did not attend the Bitcoin conference.

As for her running mate, 60-year-old Minnesota Governor Walz, who was a member of the U.S. Army National Guard, has the characteristics of a traditional military and political figure. He has publicly referred to Trump and his running mate JD Vance as "odd people" on several occasions, which is attractive to older white audiences and conservatives. Overall, Walz has not expressed his views on crypto, but his insistence on a 100% clean energy policy suggests that the Bitcoin mining industry may not be so welcome to him.

Harris's running mate, Tim Walz, source: The New York Times Chinese website

The other is the support camp. In response to Trump's remarks, many Democrats have come out to oppose them, stating that Harris is actively learning about the crypto industry and does not entirely adhere to a strict stance. Democratic Party member Wiley Nickel stated at the Bitcoin conference that 28 elected Democratic representatives had sent a joint letter to party leaders, hoping to include support for digital assets in the party platform, select an SEC chairman who supports innovation, and engage with the industry in a meaningful way. From a personal perspective, Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge, also mentioned that Harris is not closely associated with Elizabeth Warren and the current SEC chairman, Gary Gensler, who are known opponents of crypto.

In fact, the Democratic Party cannot afford to stand idly by for the enticing crypto vote. In the past week, Harris's team hired former Binance advisor David Provor and former Ripple board member Gene Sperling to join the campaign, showing a thaw in their attitude.

On July 29th, it was reported that Harris's team is in contact with the U.S. cryptocurrency industry, with Coinbase, Circle, and Ripple among the contacts, in an effort to ease the tension between the Democratic Party and the crypto industry. According to the team, they hope to have more constructive dialogue with the crypto industry and establish a regulatory framework favorable to the development of cryptocurrencies. Last Thursday, the California Democratic Party also held its first meeting with the crypto industry.

In addition, the candidates will not ignore the money. According to fundraising documents, the Trump campaign team received over $3 million in crypto investments in the second quarter, with donations from founders of several crypto companies such as Winklevoss, Kraken, and Messari. In response, the U.S. Democratic Party recently launched the "Crypto for Harris" campaign to counter Trump's appeal in the crypto industry. Democratic crypto supporters plan to hold an online town hall meeting this Thursday, where several guests including Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci will speak about ways to support Harris's campaign and fundraising.

In this regard, due to the pressure of voter support and financial interests, another 180-degree turn may also occur with Harris. Given that Harris's strong voter base did not previously cover the crypto industry, the actual actions and the extent of loosening still need to be observed. At the meeting last Thursday, a journalist revealed that the communication situation was very tense, with almost unilateral intense attacks and emotional outbursts from crypto companies against White House policies, and ultimately, representatives from the White House and Harris's advisors made no commitments. The recent requirement from the Federal Reserve for crypto-friendly bank Customers Bancorp to provide 30 days' notice before establishing any new banking relationships with crypto companies has also prompted the industry to re-examine Harris's stance on crypto.

It is certain that before the end of the election, both parties will inevitably have a new competition in the crypto field.

03. Campaign Anxiety, Focusing on Immediate Interests is the Best Policy

For the crypto industry, betting on both sides may be the best approach, as aligning words and actions is not easy, especially in front of politicians who are full of empty promises. Data from Polymarket shows that the crypto winds are blowing towards Harris, with Harris having a 52% chance of winning, slightly ahead of Trump.

Crypto market prediction data, source: Polymarket

On the other hand, Silicon Valley is also witnessing a battle of values surrounding the election. Silicon Valley has always been a solid supporter of the Democratic Party, but Biden's previous tough stance on tech anti-monopoly has damaged this voter base, leading some Silicon Valley representatives such as Ben Horowitz and Marc Andreessen to switch their support to Trump. Harris has previously assisted in establishing AI regulations, and her dovish attitude is expected to once again attract attention from Silicon Valley.

From a personal values perspective, industry insiders have stated that the vast majority of people are more accepting of Harris's political views. Tech executives and major Democratic fundraisers, such as Steve Spinner, even declared, "For every one person supporting Trump, there are 20 supporting Kamala." Currently, over 800 venture capitalists led by Reed Hastings of Netflix and Reid Hoffman of LinkedIn have pledged their support for Harris.

Silicon Valley launches a support campaign for Kamala, source: vcsforkamala official website

Investors also hold the same view. For example, Mark Cuban, who had previously expressed clear support for Trump, is now actively campaigning for Harris. Although this move has little significance for votes outside of fundraising, as most venture capitalists do not belong to swing state members, it is evident that even in terms of the probability of winning, Harris will not be easily defeated. On September 10th, Harris will engage in her first direct confrontation with Trump, as both have agreed to participate in a debate hosted by ABC News on that day, which will greatly influence the subsequent public opinion.

In any case, the political drama in the United States will continue for some time, and there is still considerable room for the crypto community's MEME to be hyped. Focusing on immediate interests and not placing hope in anyone is the way to survive in the crypto world.

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