According to Polymarket, Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States, is projected to win the election this November despite his conviction on May 30, 2024. A jury of 12 New Yorkers found Trump guilty of felony falsification of business records, a crime involving the creation or cause of false entries in records with the intent to commit another crime.
Trump remains eligible to run for and potentially become the next president of the United States despite his recent criminal conviction. The U.S. Constitution does not explicitly bar convicted felons from running for or serving as president. While Trump’s conviction could result in a maximum sentence of four years in prison, it is widely believed that he will avoid jail time as a first-time offender for a non-violent crime.
2024 U.S. presidential election odds as of May 31, 2024, via Polymarket.
Forty-eight days ago, before Trump’s conviction, Polymarket’s odds for the 2024 election were closer. Trump had a 46% chance of defeating incumbent President Joe Biden, who held a 44% chance. The day after the jury reached its conclusion, Polymarket’s odds of Trump winning increased significantly compared to April. Currently, the Polymarket called “Presidential Election Winner 2024” gives the former president a 54% chance of winning.
The Polymarket election bet is currently valued at $143.76 million, with Biden holding a 40% chance of winning. Below Biden is Michelle Obama with a 4% chance and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with a 2% chance. Other prediction sites show similar trends, with covers.com’s betting odds showing Trump leading with 52.4% and Biden at 43.5%. Covers.com also notes Trump’s conviction on 34 counts prominently on its website.
On oddschecker.com, Trump’s chances of winning stand at 45.5%, while Biden’s are around 33.3%. Interestingly, following the conviction, many people who previously did not support Trump have now decided to vote for him. “I’m voting for Trump,” one individual remarked. “I don’t even like him. I’m just tired of the left. Tired of DEI & gun laws & tax hikes & climate nonsense & billions to foreigners.” Maine Senator Eric Brakey said:
I was undecided, but today’s events have convinced me. I am voting for Trump.
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