Bitget Research Institute: Miners' cost price reaches $60,000 after halving, presenting opportunities for a rebound if it falls below or rebounds

CN
1 year ago

Yesterday, BTC briefly fell below $63,000, and is currently trading around $62,500. The approximate power of newly manufactured Bitcoin mining machines is around 30W/T, and the shutdown price is approximately $60,000.

In the past 24 hours, many new popular coins and topics have emerged in the market, and they may be the next wealth creation opportunities.

  • Sectors with strong wealth creation effects: Ethena (ENA), Cross-chain track (W);

  • User hot search tokens & topics: Debank, Lyra, Revolut;

  • Potential airdrop opportunities: MEZO, DFLOW;

Data statistics time: May 8, 2024, 4:00 (UTC+0)

I. Market Environment

Yesterday, BTC briefly fell below $63,000, and is currently trading around $62,500. The market's hotspots are scattered, and the wealth effect is not significant. The shutdown price of mainstream Bitcoin mining machines is around $60,000, and BTC is likely to encounter strong support at $60,000. The daily ETH burn on the Ethereum network has dropped to its lowest level this year, with only 610 ETH burned the day before. The decrease in ETH burn is mainly due to the recent decrease in average gas fees. Generally low gas fees indicate that ETH is relatively undervalued and has room for future growth.

In the crypto market, last week, BTC spot ETF officially started trading in Hong Kong. As of now, the trading volume of the first batch of virtual asset spot ETFs issued in Hong Kong has exceeded 60 million Hong Kong dollars, and there is a significant inflow of funds from the Asia-Pacific region. The US SEC issued a "Wells Notice" to Robinhood, which involves RHC's cryptocurrency listing, cryptocurrency custody, and platform operation (RHC activities). Regulatory scrutiny in the US is increasing, and after two consecutive days of net inflows, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of funds of $19 million yesterday, indicating an overall cautious market sentiment.

II. Wealth Creation Sectors

1) Sector Dynamics: Ethena (ENA)

Main reasons: During the overall period of low-altitude trend, Ethena's protocol fees reached $8.3 million in the past week, ranking first in stablecoin protocols, far exceeding the second-ranked MakerDAO. The circulating market value of USDe has rapidly reached the $2 billion level, attracting a certain level of community attention.

Rise situation: ENA has continued to rise since its TGE a few days ago, from an opening price of about $0.6 to around $0.95, despite the recent market downturn.

Factors affecting future market:

  • Growth of USDe circulation: Currently, USDe's market value is $2 billion, ranking fourth in stablecoin market value. If USDe's circulating market value can approach or even exceed the third-ranked DAI, the price potential of ENA will be greatly expanded.

  • Expected yield of Ethena activities and the strength of external cooperative projects: Bybit's support for USDe tokens as collateral for derivative trading has led to a recent 8% increase in the price of ENA. Ethena's USDe tokenized yield strategy has attracted deposits of over $2 billion and has conducted some risk reviews of the token. Meanwhile, the second season of Ethena campaign has started, and Ethena has cooperated with many well-known projects such as Zircuit, adding more substantial returns to the collateral of USDe.

2) Sector Dynamics: Cross-chain track (W)

Main reasons: As a leading interoperability platform, Wormhole provides support for large-scale multi-chain applications and bridging. Last week (April 29 - May 5), Wormhole underwent many updates in the ecosystem, and the positive news led to continuous price increases, attracting high community attention.

Rise situation: W has risen by 2.5% in the past hour and 5.2% in the past 7 days.

Factors affecting future market:

  • W's future roadmap indicates that W has become a native multi-chain token and has completed the second phase of the W release roadmap. This release will bring the first multi-chain governance system MultiGov and W staking governance, which is expected to absorb tokens in the market. If the growth effect of W staking is good, the selling pressure in the market will further decrease.

  • Continuous positive news: The first liquidity staking derivative JitoSOL on Solana has officially expanded to Arbitrum through Wormhole NTT and has become a native ERC 20 token on Arbitrum. Wormhole announced its ecosystem plan, including Wormhole Accelerator, Cross-chain Ecosystem Fund, and xGrant plan. Among them, Borderless Capital launched a $50 million cross-chain ecosystem fund for developing next-generation Web3 applications, and also sponsored an Algorand hackathon, where developers participated in the interoperability track to build applications that facilitate blockchain communication and collaboration.

3) Sectors to Focus on in the Future: AI Sector

Main reasons: The primary market of the AI sector is quite active, with decentralized computing power platforms such as io.net launching points and preparing for token issuance. Investors should keep an eye on the primary valuation of io.net and other related information. There are market rumors that OpenAI may announce its ChatGPT search product on May 9, competing with Google, which will bring external attention and funds to the crypto AI track.

Specific coin list:

  • ARKM: Arkham is a blockchain analysis platform that uses artificial intelligence for on-chain data analysis;

  • NEAR: Many AI projects in the NEAR ecosystem have recently received funding, and NEAR is expected to become the future AI Hub.

  • RNDR: As the underlying infrastructure of the AI track, RNDR is not only involved in the AI field, but also deeply involved in the Solana ecosystem and other tracks. In addition, as Apple's VR partner, RNDR undoubtedly has huge market potential. Market reactions will also occur regarding the dynamics of Apple's future VR devices.

III. User Hot Searches

1) Popular Dapps

Lyra: The options protocol Lyra released a blog post stating that LDX is Lyra's new utility token. The first round of LDX airdrops rewards traders and liquidity providers, using a points system to distribute LDX to users in proportion over 4 weeks. The airdrop will continue for at least 3 rounds, or 12 weeks. Users can earn points through trading, yield, and referrals. The snapshot has ended, and users can participate in the airdrop activity based on the subsequent performance of LDX in the secondary market.

2) Twitter

Bitget Research Institute: Miner's cost price reaches $60,000 after halving, if it falls below, it may usher in a rebound opportunity

Debank: Debank posted a tweet "Are you ready?" with a camera photo, possibly indicating an upcoming airdrop snapshot. Due to the anticipation of the airdrop and the fact that its airdrop rules have not been fully disclosed, community discussions have quickly gained momentum.

3) Google Search & Region

Bitget Research Institute: Miner's cost price reaches $60,000 after halving, if it falls below, it may usher in a rebound opportunity

From a global perspective:

Revolut: Revolut is a digital bank based in the UK with over 40 million customers worldwide. It is also one of the first banks to establish an independent trading platform to provide cryptocurrency trading for customers. Recently, its cryptocurrency trading platform, Revolut X, has been opened to professional cryptocurrency traders. In addition, its new product "Revolut Ramp," in collaboration with MetaMask, allows users to directly recharge their MetaMask wallets using their Revolut accounts, forming a CEFI+DEFI business loop. However, it is currently only open to professional traders, so the actual audience is relatively small.

In terms of regional hot searches:

Yesterday, there were significant differences in hot searches in various regions, but Asia and the CIS region still maintain considerable enthusiasm for RWA.

In Europe, the Americas, and Africa, there are also differences in the search for meme tokens. In Europe, meme tokens with dog-themed totems such as floki and shib have appeared, while in Africa and the Middle East, there have been multiple hot searches for pepe.

IV. Potential Airdrop Opportunities

MEZO

Mezo is a BTC Layer 2 project that focuses on the BTC ecosystem, helping BTC holders with on-chain transfers and financial management, and driving the development of the BTC DeFi system. Mezo recently announced the completion of a $21 million financing round, with investment from top-tier institutions in the industry such as Pantera Capital, Hack VC, and Multicoin Capital.

The official BTC asset pledging plan has been publicly disclosed, and a Referral mechanism has been introduced. There is a strong expectation for the project's airdrop, and it is currently in the early stages of operation.

Specific participation methods: 1) Visit the project's official website and find an invite code on Discord; 2) Enter the invite code and link the Unisat wallet; 3) Deposit BTC.

DFLOW

DFlow is a decentralized order flow market designed to support order flows from various L1 chains and Rollups. It has received $7.5 million in financing from well-known institutions such as Framework, Coinbase, Wintermute, and Multicoin.

The project has a simple interaction process, where depositing on the Solana chain can earn points. If there is an airdrop in the future, these points are expected to be an important basis for the airdrop distribution. The 0th season of DFlow has ended, and the first phase of the preseason is now beginning. The preseason is a warm-up for the DFlow mainnet in late May, which means that DFlow applications and protocols will be available for use.

Specific participation methods: Create an account on the DFLOW official website, which will generate a Solana wallet address with an exportable private key. Recharge the wallet with at least $5 worth of supported tokens (SOL, jitoSOL, USDT, USDC, etc.), and the project will provide XP points based on the amount and time of the deposit. Additionally, inviting friends to recharge to DFLOW will earn additional points.

Original link: https://www.bitget.com/en-US/research/articles/12560603809293

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