"Events create expectations, expectations generate market attention, and market attention drives price increases."
Written by: 雨中狂睡
Hello everyone, the May outlook is here, thank you for waiting.
Considering the unclear market conditions before (although I think it's the bottom, I still want to observe for a few days), so I didn't post any content on May 1st.
Now the content is here, Enjoy～
This article is my personal summary of the tokens I am preparing to layout based on Narrative & Catalyst, and speculation is speculation, but don't fall in love with the project～
Looking at the overall market, I don't think it's urgent to FOMO directly in. You can wait for a pullback, or start with a bottom position now and slowly add to it.
1/ AI
AI narrative has been the most discussed narrative in the past few days. The main reason is that the AI narrative has several clear catalysts:
May 22 NVIDIA Earnings;
June 10 Apple WWDC 2024 will also release some additional AI-related content;
ChatGPT 5 may be released this summer, and the GPT version of the search engine is also coming;
May 14 Google I/O conference
Essentially, this is a matter of attention. That is, events create expectations, expectations generate market attention, and market attention drives price increases.
There are many AI projects in the coin circle, and picking coins is a skill. Generally, I tend to favor coins that have market recognition + CEXs List. For example, $FET and $TAO.
Although $TAO has a large market value, the staking rate is still quite high, and the circulation is low.
While $FET is preparing for a merger with $OCEAN & $AGIX. On May 3, Fetch.ai has already minted an additional 1,477,549,566 tokens in preparation for the next conversion.
Between $TAO and $FET, I chose $FET. Actually, $TAO is also good haha, but my personal funds are limited, so I started with subtraction.
If you like computing power projects, you can take a look at $RNDR and $AKT
Another track I am optimistic about is AI agents, that is $OLAS. However, $OLAS is my long-term position, so I'll hold onto it for now. I will add some positions in other coins after making money in other projects.
Another target of AI agents is $PRIME, I cleared my position at 24-26 dollars. The expectation for $PRIME should be in the second half of the year or 25, so there's no rush to layout.
In addition, some small opportunities can also be considered, such as the second phase of Jupiter's Launchpad, UpRock.
Also, some interactive scoring projects, I personally think the profit margin is not high, because where there are many people, there is speculation.
Of course, there are many AI projects, and there are many projects that I have not paid attention to. A simple logic is: whether the market is willing to buy corresponding AI projects (market attention).
2/ MEME
As for MEME, I won't talk much about on-chain, finding gold in the mud. I will probably only do $WIF and $PEPE (I don't deny that memecoins like $BOME $BONK $FLOKI are also good speculative targets).
$PEPE is my long-term position, and I like to do swing trades with $WIF. Buy in/add positions when the market sentiment is low during BTC pullbacks, and sell when the sentiment surges. This type of operation is only suitable for bull markets. I believe $WIF and $PEPE both have the opportunity to become meme coins at the level of $SHIB in this cycle.
3/ Solana
You can check out Pima's views. I'll add that, what $JUP is currently doing is not just DEX, it is striving to become the front end of the entire Solana ecosystem. Let's take a look at what Jupiter is doing now:
DEX aggregation: launched Metropolis Part 1, introduced a new T0 API, allowing users to directly exchange on-chain markets with the highest liquidity. Also launched
Perp DEX;
Launchpad;
Acquired Ultimate Wallet and its mobile team, driving the Jupiter Mobile plan;
Jito Bundles (tip function, protecting users from MEV attacks);
LST jupSOL;
Meme: WEN, WEN is doing things related to NFT and SOL staking;
The Jupiter team has a broad vision, so I think $JUP is Solana's biggest Beta. And $WEN will be $JUP's Beta.
$JTO's value lies in LSD and MEV, as Pima mentioned, the Solana ecosystem is hot, which is good for Jito.
In addition, Jupiter's second phase project Sanctum is worth paying attention to, staking SOL for rewards, feel free to use my link (https://sanc.tm/w?ref=8VZMS1).
$PYTH is about to unlock tokens worth 1.19 billion USD, so I'm not very optimistic. As for $TSNR and $W, I'm not looking at them. Currently, they don't have significant catalysts, and there are many trapped positions.
As I said, less is more.
In addition, there are many things on Solana, including Depin (io.net), cross-chain bridges with BTC (BRC20, RUNES) ($ZEUS), RWA, and so on, which are interesting concepts, I won't update them one by one, if there are new positions, I will update on Twitter.
4/ Basechain
From my logic (market attention) point of view, there are two things that can attract market attention, one thing has already happened: Friend Tech's token issuance. Another thing is still on the way: the official launch of Coinbase Smart Wallet.
There are only a few good targets on Base.
My largest position is $DEGEN. The rest are basically memecoins.
I think Basechain will definitely be the birthplace of SocialFi. Including Friend Tech (I didn't sell the airdrop of Friend Tech, I used a small part to do LP, there have been many discussions about Friend Tech on Twitter, so I won't go into it again) and Farcaster, these SocialFi will definitely have a very good development on Coinbase and Basechain. I saw in the community that everyone's view of Degen is: no longer seeing Degen as a meme, but as a Layer3.
My view is: I still think the biggest attribute of $DEGEN is MEME. My judgment of it is mainly based on its name and birthplace.
5/ ETH
ETH is still promising. I think the probability of an ETF in May is unlikely, but there is a chance in August. According to GCR's view, he thinks that the ETH ETF may be at the end of 24 or 25.
$PENDLE I still hold, did not sell any in the last FUD. From a more macro perspective, after Eigenlayer, airdrops/scoring will still be the means for projects to acquire users/TVL or to cold start. Therefore, Pendle's underlying core value still exists. And Pendle v3 is also on the way, with "Intent" as the core concept.
Buying in during FUD may be a better choice.
$LDO has a good fundamental, but it's not the season for value coins right now, so the performance is mediocre, or even poor. But I personally think $LDO is actually Ethereum's Beta, and $PEPE is Alpha.
$ETC halving is imminent, also worth paying attention to.
Also, $MODE is worth paying more attention to.
6/ BlackRock
BlackRock's layout in Crypto is also something that easily attracts market attention. It is mainly working on ETFs and RWAs (as well as some infrastructure). The BTC ETF has been approved, and the mainstream target for RWA is $ONDO.
I think it's a good choice to observe BlackRock's layout and follow their layout for speculation.
7/ European Cup + Summer Olympics
Similar to the hype around the World Cup before, the Summer Olympics and European Cup both have similar speculative expectations. Like the AI narrative, this kind of hype is triggered by large-scale external events.
8/ Gaming
Finally, a brief mention of gaming: I am optimistic, but I don't know when the wind will blow to the gaming sector. I think it's important to focus on games with a sufficient player base.
Overall
Overall, "Sell in May and go away" is a very mainstream operation, but I don't think there will be a big drop in May without major negative events happening. I lean towards a May of oscillation (referring to BTC), a period of cultivation. Some meme coins in narratives may have some opportunities.
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