This round of BTC bull market, where will the low point of the callback be?

Today, the CEO of the largest mining company in North America, @MarathonDH, was interviewed by Bloomberg on the topic of Marathon's preparation for Bitcoin halving.

Original video (with English subtitles): https://t.co/XClavIr4uU

There are two important numbers in the video that all BTC investors and US stock crypto investors should pay attention to. Before the Bitcoin halving, Marathon's BTC mining cost is expected to be below 20k, but after the halving, the marginal cost of Marathon's BTC mining may reach 46k, which is Marathon's highest estimated mining cost. The actual cost should be lower than 46k. (This mining cost is only estimated by Marathon and will ultimately change based on the global distribution of computing power after the industry reshuffle following the halving.)

Previous analysis suggests that the post-halving mining cost of CLSK is expected to be similar to that of Marathon, with not much difference. Marathon and CLSK should represent the BTC mining cost of developed countries in the US and Europe. Mining facilities mainly deployed in Asia will have lower mining costs than Marathon and CLSK, but the marginal cost is expected to be above 40k.

If the BTC price is lower than the mining cost, Bitcoin mining machines will be shut down. This is often an important reference for the bottom of the BTC price. For example, in 2022, the bottom of BTC was around 18k, but when the BTC price reached the mining cost, it generally occurred in the late stage of the bear market. The low point of the callback in the bull market will be much higher than the mining cost price.

Before May 2021, the Bitcoin mining power was mainly concentrated in Asia, where the mining cost was relatively low. In the first half of 2021, the mining cost in North America was above 15k (based on the quarterly reports of listed mining companies), while the average mining cost in China was below 15k. After May 2021, Chinese mining facilities were cleared out, and the computing power gradually shifted to North America. Following the changes in computing power and energy prices, the global BTC mining cost fluctuated, but the average annual cost exceeded 20k.

Unlike 2020, nearly 45% of the global BTC computing power is now distributed in North America, with 60% in Texas and the rest in other states of the US and Canada. The mining cost of BTC can now be mainly referenced by the cost in North America, without comparing it to those extreme situations and minority distributions.

In March 2024, the BTC price reached 73k and then fell back to 61.5k.

Many people are now waiting for a black swan event similar to March 2020, but it is unlikely to happen before the BTC halving, as the time window is only the last 10 days.

Moreover, the overall environment is different from the previous cycle, with expectations of interest rate cuts and the listing of BTC ETF. Every time there is a major BTC callback, the funds from ETF bottom fishing are significant (Chart 3 shows the net inflow of iBit from BlackRock, big drop, big bottom fishing, small drop, small bottom fishing). In fact, the circulating BTC spot in the market is not enough for Wall Street institutions to absorb. In my personal opinion, it is difficult for the low point of the callback to be below 60k.

For major callbacks, in the operations of US stocks and cryptocurrencies, I mainly prioritize holding spot $coin, and $MARA can maintain its position until the distribution of computing power after the halving, while high-cost $ETHE can be supplemented.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。