Original | Odaily Planet Daily
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Author | Nan Zhi
Recently, BCH took advantage of the approaching halving date to start a strong rally, and Bitcoin is also expected to halve on April 20.
Is there a traceable pattern before and after the halving event? Odaily will review the halving data from previous years in this article.
Bitcoin Halving
Bitcoin has undergone three halvings in total, on November 28, 2012, July 9, 2016, and May 11, 2020. Since the market was not mature enough during the first halving, it is not included in the statistics.
In terms of currencies, most of the current mainstream currencies were not yet born during the second and third halvings, so some of the surviving major currencies are selected, including BTC, ETH, LTC, XRP, BCH, with prices taken from CoinGecko's Historical Data.
Taking the price on the halving day as the base point, the relative prices of the above tokens 60 days, 30 days, and 7 days before and after the halving are calculated. The trend of Bitcoin's second halving is shown in the following figure. It can be seen that before the halving period, all currencies experienced a certain degree of increase as the time approached. After the halving, most of them began to decline.
The trend of Bitcoin's third halving is shown in the following figure. It is worth noting that the 60 days before the halving actually include the day of the sharp drop on March 12, which can be considered that the price at that point was much lower than shown in the figure, considering the issue of standard consistency, the CoinGecko data is not modified.
Therefore, each currency still maintained an upward trend before the halving period, but due to the significant risk release on March 12 and macro-environmental changes, the upward trend continued after the halving.
LTC Halving
This section includes three rounds of LTC halving as a reference, which took place on August 25, 2015, August 5, 2019, and August 23, 2023, with the results shown in the following figure.
It can be seen that the LTC halving speculation started much earlier, and then continued to decline from around 30 days before and after the halving.
BCH Halving
Reviewing the market situation of BCH halving in 2020, it can be seen that the BCH speculation started earlier and more vigorously. In fact, the rise before the halving began in early 2020 (about 100 days before the halving), rising from a low of about 200 USDT to 500 USDT, while Bitcoin rose by about 25% during the same period.
Conclusion
Based on the above data, it is known that the halving speculation often starts to ferment 2-3 months or even earlier before the actual halving, and the event itself does not become a driving force for short-term growth, but rather more of a "sell the news" situation.
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