• Is the old money in BTC rapidly cashing out?

• Has the past 30 days become the most intense selling period for long-term holders in over five years?

• Three possible paths for 2026. Why is the probability highest for this one? Collect - Compare - Lightly Spray

In October, BTC reached an all-time high. The whole network was shouting, "This round can reach 200,000."

Two months later:

• BTC dropped to 86,000 (-31%)
• ETH dropped to 2,800 (-30%)

Grayscale says, "BTC will reach a new high in 2026."

Wall Street says, "2025 will end quietly."

Long-term holders are dumping; ETF battles are ongoing; retail investors are getting liquidated and exiting.

So the question arises: Will there be a bull market in 2026? How will 2026 unfold? And how to respond?

01. In two months, how the bull market narrative collapsed

October peak: 126,000 USD.

What was the market discussing at that time?

"This cycle is different; institutions have entered."

"ETFs will bring continuous buying, BTC will first reach 15, then go to 20."

Everyone was calculating how much they could earn.

In November, the correction began.

Powell's hawkish statements at the FOMC meeting made the market start to hesitate. The expectation for interest rate cuts changed from "25bp each time" to "possibly pausing rate cuts."

But at this time, most people were still shouting, "A correction is just an opportunity to get in."

By December, the narrative had completely changed.

On December 11, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bp, but the dot plot indicated that there might only be one rate cut in 2026. The market wanted "continuous easing," but Powell provided "symbolic rate cuts, with tightening in the future."

On December 16, BTC fell below 85,000 USD. In the past 24 hours, 184,600 people were liquidated, totaling over 600 million USD.

On December 18, BTC struggled around 86,000 USD, with a weekly decline of 6.5%. Ethereum fared worse, dropping below 2,900 USD, with a weekly decline of 15%.

In just two months, the narrative shifted from "can reach 200,000" to "can we hold 80,000."

This is the speed of the collapse of the bull market narrative.

02. This time is not an ordinary correction

Many people say, "Corrections are normal; the bull market is still on."

But this time, there are three signals that are different from the past.

Signal One: Long-term holders are fleeing

K33 Research data shows that from the beginning of 2023 to now, the number of bitcoins held for over two years has decreased by 1.6 million, worth about 140 billion USD.

CryptoQuant data indicates that the past 30 days have been one of the most intense selling periods for long-term holders in over five years.

These are the "diamond hands," those who survived the 2022 bear market, those who believe in the faith that "long-term holding will win."

What are they doing now? They are selling.

And they are not selling at the peak (taking profits), but at the current position (retreating).

Signal Two: Institutional buying is caught in a "tug-of-war," continuous bleeding has stopped

According to SoSoValue's latest data, institutional funds are no longer mindlessly buying but have entered a turbulent period.

As of December 17, this week, Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of about 177 million USD.

Looking back at the past month, institutional funds have shown a state of repeated fluctuations (net inflow of 286 million last week, and outflow of 177 million this week).

The narrative of "sustained net inflow" that the market relied on has collapsed.

The current ETF fund flow lacks sustainability, and this hesitant attitude of "in two out three" has caused BTC prices to lose their strongest bottom support.

Meanwhile, the trading volume in the derivatives market is also shrinking. Spot funds are hesitating, leveraged funds are retreating, and the market is in an awkward phase of liquidity shortage.

Signal Three: This is not a leveraged crash, but a spot selling pressure

In the past, sharp declines were often triggered by high leverage leading to a chain of liquidations, coming quickly and leaving just as fast.

But this time is different.

BTC fell from 100,000 to 86,000, not because of a sudden liquidation one day, but due to a continuous, slow, spot-driven decline.

Bloomberg analysts describe this decline as "slow bleeding." It is harder to reverse than a leveraged crash because the sellers are not forced to close positions but are actively exiting.

What do they see that we do not?

03. Grayscale vs. Wall Street, who is lying?

There are now two voices in the market.

Grayscale's Optimism

Grayscale's 2026 outlook report clearly states: The crypto market will usher in the dawn of the "institutional era," and Bitcoin prices may reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026.

What is their logic?

• The selling by long-term holders has entered its final stage
• Institutional demand will increase in 2026 (pensions, sovereign funds, etc.)
• The Trump administration's crypto-friendly policies will be implemented in 2026
• The Bitcoin halving effect will manifest in 2026

Wall Street's Caution

But Wall Street analysts have given a completely opposite judgment: 2025 will "end quietly," and they are cautious about a significant market rebound before the end of the year.

What they see is:

• The Federal Reserve may cut rates less than expected in 2026
• Japan's interest rate hikes will continue to drain global liquidity
• AI bubble concerns are putting pressure on risk assets
• The high correlation between BTC and tech stocks has made it a "risk asset" rather than a "safe haven asset"

Who is lying?

Perhaps neither is lying.

Grayscale is an asset management company, and their position is "bullish" because the assets they manage need to rise for them to earn management fees.

Wall Street analysts' position is "cautious" because if they are bullish but the market falls, clients will blame them.

The truth may lie in between: 2026 will not be a deep bear market, but it will not be a violent bull market either. It is more likely to be a year of consolidation, grinding, and discomfort for everyone.

04. Three possibilities for 2026

Based on the current market structure and macro environment, I deduce three possibilities.

Possibility One: Deep Bear Market (Probability less than 20%)

Trigger conditions:

• The Federal Reserve does not cut rates in 2026, or even raises them
• Japan continues to raise rates, leading to large-scale unwinding of yen carry trades
• The tech stock bubble in the US bursts, with the Nasdaq dropping over 30%

In this scenario:

• BTC could drop to 60,000 USD or even lower
• ETH could return to below 2,000 USD
• A large number of altcoins could go to zero
• Retail investors completely exit, leaving only institutions to accumulate at the bottom

This is the worst-case scenario, but the probability is low. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise rates during an economic slowdown, and the Trump administration would also pressure for easing policies.

Possibility Two: Consolidation Bottoming (Probability 60%)

This is the most likely scenario.

Throughout 2026, BTC fluctuates between 70,000 and 100,000 USD. No explosive growth, no crash, just grinding.

Characteristics:

• Every time it rises to 95,000, long-term holders sell
• Every time it drops to 75,000, institutions buy slightly
• ETF fund inflows and outflows are basically balanced
• Trading volume remains sluggish, and volatility decreases

This is the most torturous scenario. Those chasing the rise get trapped, those bottom-fishing wait for a big surge, and leveraged players repeatedly get liquidated.

But this is also a good time to accumulate positions. If you have patience, consolidation bottoming is the most suitable phase for dollar-cost averaging.

Possibility Three: Institutional Bull (Probability 20%)

Trigger conditions:

• US pensions or sovereign funds allocate BTC on a large scale
• The Trump administration launches a strategic Bitcoin reserve plan
• The Federal Reserve resumes QE under pressure from economic recession

In this scenario:

• BTC could break through 150,000 USD in the second half of 2026
• But this time, retail investors will not make money.
• Because the pace of institutional accumulation is too fast, retail investors won't have time to get in.

This is the scenario that Grayscale hopes for, but the probability is low. Because it requires too many "ifs" to happen simultaneously.

05. What to do in each scenario

If it is a deep bear market:

• Immediately stop dollar-cost averaging and keep cash
• Gradually buy when BTC drops below 60,000
• Do not bottom fish altcoins; they may go to zero
• Patiently wait for 2027, as that will be the real opportunity

If it is consolidation bottoming:

• Lower expectations and accept the reality of "not making big money"
• Dollar-cost average BTC and ETH, avoid leverage
• Every major drop is an opportunity to add positions, every major rise is an opportunity to reduce positions
• Maintain a cash position of over 30% to respond to emergencies

If it is an institutional bull:

• Do not chase highs; the characteristic of an institutional bull is "rapid rises, rapid ends"
• If BTC breaks 120,000, set a profit-taking point, do not be greedy
• Pay attention to institutional holding data; when they reduce positions, you should too
• This bull market is not a benefit for retail investors, but a trap

But regardless of the scenario, there are three iron rules:

• Do not allocate more than 50% of your assets to cryptocurrencies
• Do not use more than 2x leverage
• Do not believe "this time is different"

06. History does not repeat, but always rhymes

In November 2021, BTC reached an all-time high of 69,000 USD.

At that time, everyone was shouting, "100,000 USD is just the starting point."

And then?

In January 2022, it began to correct, dropping to 17,600 USD in June. A full year and a half of bear market.

How similar is the current situation to November 2021?

Both saw a rapid correction after reaching an all-time high.

Both began to decline at the hottest time of the institutional entry narrative.

Both saw long-term holders starting to sell.

Both saw market expectations shift from "200,000" to "can we hold the key support."

History does not simply repeat, but the rhymes are always similar.

If 2026 truly is a repeat of 2022, then:

BTC may drop to 60,000 or 70,000 in mid-2026.

Then, from the end of 2026 to early 2027, it will slowly bottom out.

The real bull market may have to wait until the second half of 2027 or even 2028.

But there are differences:

In 2022, the collapse was triggered by black swan events like Luna's crash and FTX's bankruptcy.

In 2025, there are no black swans, only macro liquidity tightening and long-term holders retreating.

This means that even if it falls, it won't crash like in 2022. But it also means that even if it rises, it won't surge like in 2021.

2026 may be a year where "nothing happens."

07. Final Advice

If you bought at the high in October, you are now down 31%.

If you bottom-fished in the panic of December, you may continue to lose.

But if you understand the logic of this article, you will realize:

2026 is not a year for making money, but a year for survival.

In a deep bear market, preserving your capital is victory.

In a consolidation bottoming, accumulating positions is victory.

In an institutional bull, taking profits in time is victory.

The market will not move according to your expectations, nor will it move according to Grayscale's or Wall Street's expectations.

It will move according to liquidity, capital flow, and human nature.

And the only certainty is: In 2026, there is no certainty.

So, lower your expectations, maintain patience, and do not gamble.

History tells us that those who truly make big money are not the ones chasing highs at the top of the bull market, but those who persist in dollar-cost averaging at the bottom of the bear market.

If 2026 truly is a bear market or a year of consolidation, then congratulations, you have a whole year to accumulate positions.

If 2026 truly is an institutional bull, then also congratulations, at least you know when to run.

I recommend saving this article. Each quarter of 2026, take it out for comparison.

By then, you will know where the market has gone, or it will be convenient to spray me in time.

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