Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Driven by the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut and plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds monthly, precious metals have performed particularly well, with gold breaking through December's high, approaching the $4,290 mark, and spot silver surging to $64, setting a new historical high. However, signs of fatigue in the U.S. labor market emerged, with initial jobless claims rising by 44,000 to 236,000 last week, the largest single-week increase since the pandemic, coupled with data showing a narrowing trade deficit, keeping the market cautious about economic prospects. Meanwhile, China held a Central Economic Work Conference, setting the tone for economic work in 2026, clearly stating the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on expanding domestic demand and technological innovation. However, in the specific consumer goods sector, the price of Moutai continues to be under pressure, with the price of 25-year Feitian Moutai dropping below the psychological threshold of 1,499 yuan, down from around 2,200 yuan at the beginning of the year, a cumulative decline of over 30%. Industry insiders are concerned that the continuous price drop may reduce profits for distributors or even lead to losses, potentially triggering a vicious cycle of "price drop → sell-off → further decline." Looking ahead, analysts generally believe that global central bank policies will further diverge in 2026, with the Federal Reserve ending QT and expanding its balance sheet, which will bring a liquidity turning point, but the pressure of dollar depreciation may force the European Central Bank to balance inflation and exchange rates carefully.

The recent surge in the field of artificial intelligence faced a reality check this week, as market doubts about AI investment returns led to a general pullback in tech stocks. Oracle saw its stock price plummet by as much as 16% during trading due to cloud infrastructure revenue growth falling short of expectations and raising its capital expenditure guidance to $50 billion, resulting in a market value loss of over $68.9 billion in a single day (with some estimates reaching $102 billion), prompting investment banks like UBS and Morgan Stanley to lower their target prices. Financial reports indicated that its profit growth mainly relied on non-recurring income, with core business profitability under pressure. Broadcom, despite exceeding expectations in revenue and profit for the fourth quarter, with AI revenue growing by 65%, saw its stock price drop by 1.94% after hours, reflecting cautious market sentiment. Meanwhile, OpenAI released its most advanced model GPT-5.2 and announced a $1 billion partnership with Walt Disney, directly causing Google's stock price to fall by 2.43%. Domestically, Moore Threads, as the "first domestic GPU stock," saw its stock price soar over 723% after listing, with a market value exceeding 440 billion yuan. After reaching a new high of 941.08 yuan and a cumulative increase of 723%, the company issued a risk warning announcement last night, stating that the fundamentals remain unchanged and new products are still in the research and development stage, with limited short-term impact on performance. Today, the stock price fell by more than 15%, briefly dropping below 800 yuan.

Bitcoin is currently trading in the range of $92,000 to $94,000. On-chain data shows that large holders are transferring less to exchanges, reducing selling pressure. CryptoQuant indicates that if this trend continues, BTC could rebound to $99,000 or even $112,000. Man of Bitcoin analysis suggests that BTC remains above the upward trend line, and if it breaks through the upper wedge, it will look towards the $96,962 to $102,432 range. However, bearish forces remain strong, with analyst Astronomer opening a short position at $92,700, targeting a pullback to $87,700; Killa stated that Bitcoin may rise to $94,000 or even higher in the short term but could then see a pullback. He plans to increase his position in the $95,000 to $98,000 range and expects Bitcoin to potentially drop to $70,000 or even $60,000 next year. Ted also noted that the current trend is remarkably similar to the last cycle, and if the script repeats, it could spike to $100,000 before plummeting below $70,000. In terms of market predictions, traders generally believe that the probability of breaking $100,000 before the end of the year is only about 30%. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone warned that the new "Santa Claus rally" may not occur, and BTC could end the year below $84,000. The market is currently focused on whether BTC can hold the $90,000-$91,000 support zone; if it fails, it may test the current range's bottom, while if it stabilizes, it may challenge the $94,000 resistance level again.

Regarding Ethereum, market sentiment is oscillating between ETF fund inflows and technical pressure. Although net inflows into spot ETFs have rebounded to $21.5 billion, prices remain constrained by key resistance levels. Ali pointed out that there are two solid support walls below ETH, at the $3,150 line with 2.8 million tokens accumulated, and the $2,800 line with 3.6 million tokens accumulated; Glassnode data sets the key support at $2,770. For future trends, Delphi Digital analyst that1618guy holds an optimistic view, believing that ETH has maintained the daily cross and completed a pullback. If Bitcoin can break through $94,000, Ethereum is expected to follow up to the $3,600-$3,800 range. However, Man of Bitcoin cautions investors to be aware of risks, noting that prices are forming a small bearish triangle, and a drop below the trend line would be a clear warning signal.

Additionally, Do Kwon's trial has finally concluded, with the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York announcing that Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon has been formally sentenced to 15 years in prison for securities fraud and wire fraud, among other charges. This news directly led to a nearly 30% drop in related tokens such as LUNA, LUNC, and USTC within 24 hours.

2. Key Data (as of December 12, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: GMGN, CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $92,551 (YTD -1.12%), daily spot trading volume $4.65 billion

• Ethereum: $3,253 (YTD -2.5%), daily spot trading volume $2.401 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 29 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.04 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.46%, ETH 12.2%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, ETH, BTC, SOL, BARD

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.95% / 50.05%

• Sector performance: Layer2 sector up 3.6%, DeFi sector up 3.2%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 89,358 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $241 million, including $96.93 million in BTC, $55.15 million in ETH, and $11.79 million in SOL.

3. ETF Flows (as of December 11)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$77.34 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$42.37 million

• Solana ETF: +$11.02 million

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will launch RaveDAO (RAVE)

• Talus Foundation: US airdrop claim portal is now open, deadline December 14

• Bittensor will welcome its first halving on December 14, reducing the daily issuance to 3,600 TAO

• The U.S. SEC cryptocurrency working group will hold a financial regulation and privacy roundtable on December 15

• Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at midnight on December 12, with a circulation ratio of 0.83%, valued at about $19.3 million;

• Cheelee (CHEEL) will unlock approximately 20.81 million tokens at 8 AM on December 13, with a circulation ratio of 2.86%, valued at about $10.8 million;

The largest gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies today: Zcash up 8.1%, Aave up 7.7%, MYX Finance up 7.3%, Mantle up 6.7%, MemeCore up 6%.

5. Hot News

• CCB responds to Dogecoin transfer remarks being locked: If high risk is detected, the account will be set to "no deposits, no withdrawals" status

• The creator of DOYR token issues nearly 10,000 MEME coins through three associated addresses, with total profits exceeding $1.2 million

• Only one Bitcoin treasury company has outperformed the S&P 500 so far in 2025

• Jupiter will launch the stablecoin JupUSD next week

• YouTube introduces a new option to pay U.S. creators using stablecoins

• Bloomberg: Coinbase plans to announce the launch of prediction markets and tokenized stocks next week

• “1011 Insider Whale” increases BTC long positions by 41, bringing total BTC long positions to 1,000 BTC

• Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon sentenced to 15 years in prison by U.S. judge

• a16z releases "17 Crypto Trends for 2026," focusing on key directions such as RWA, AI agents, and privacy chains

• Since the launch of the self-repurchase plan, Pump.fun has repurchased 13.8% of the circulating supply of PUMP tokens

• The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, expected to cut rates only once in 2026

• If SpaceX goes public with a valuation of $15 trillion, Musk's net worth will approach $1 trillion

• Sei will collaborate with Xiaomi to pre-install Web3 payment applications on new smartphones globally

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