Elasticity, Dependency Top 2H Commodity Headwinds Lessons from rising commodity-price elasticity in 1H can set the stage for increased reversion in 2H. Or will broad commodities rally in an inflationary environment? My bias is they already have, and that a post-inflation deflationary cycle -- typically a matter of time -- may define 2H. The binary outcomes appear straightforward. If the value of the US stock market keeps rising above 2.5x GDP, all is well for the rising tide. The trade-off is that inflation is more likely to be resilient, increasing political pressure as affordability remains a top issue. If the stock market drops, it can help alleviate inflation, a primary goal of the new Federal Reserve chair, but can also sow the seeds of the next wealth-reversion recession. I see a potential lose-lose setup for commodities in 2H. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/thdyh8kgifpk {BI COMD} #commodites @Bloomberg(Mike McGlone)