[Li Xunlei: Judge the bursting of the foam and see that these three signals bring opportunities for those who do not get on the bus] Golden Finance reported on July 2nd that Li Xunlei, Chief Economist of Zhongtai International, recently shared his observations and thoughts on topics such as K-type global differentiation in the silicon-based era and new trends in wealth management. He pointed out that with the arrival of the AI era, the global K-type differentiation is intensifying. In the US stock market, 1% of investors own 50% of the market value, while the bottom 50% of investors hold only 1% of the total market value; The seven giants in the United States account for one-third of the market value of the S&P 500, and most companies do not create value. In the past 15 years, only 6.5% of stocks have covered all net wealth created in the entire market, and the remaining 93.5% of positive and negative value offset to zero. The current low inflation, pressure for RMB appreciation, and lower interest rates have provided relatively ample space for China's fiscal policy; The interest expenditure on US treasury bond bonds accounts for 16% of the fiscal revenue, and the policy space is obviously limited. In terms of asset allocation, Li Xunlei believes that the real estate market has long been suppressed by population aging, slowing urbanization, and a decrease in the total population, resulting in an overall low allocation value; There is still room for improvement in the proportion of equity asset allocation in the capital market - Chinese households' stocks and funds account for about 10%, lower than the 32% in the United States and 14.5% in Japan. How to judge the burst of AI foam? Li Xunlei believes that the main focus is on cash flow, as AI companies are currently investing heavily, but if their revenue cannot keep up, there is a risk of cash flow disruption. The second factor is the unemployment rate, as in the era of AI, it may lead to a large number of unemployed people. The third is inflation, if the inflation level further increases, the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates; This will lead to the release of risks for markets with relatively high valuation levels. "But after all, it is still a silicon based era, so I think that if this round of AI foam bursts, it should bring opportunities to investors who are not involved in the AI industry. ”Li Xunlei believes that under the cycle of deglobalization, China's competitiveness continues to improve, and there are potential opportunities in the industrial chain links related to food security, energy security, technology, and military industry. We should maintain confidence in China's future.