深潮TechFlow|Jul 04, 2026 09:29
[Analyst: 20% of Active BTC Investors Are Currently at an Unrealized Loss, Market Enters Mild Undervaluation Zone]
Deep Tide TechFlow reports that on July 4, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that approximately 20% of active Bitcoin investors are currently at an unrealized loss. The market sentiment is in a 'devaluation' phase but has not yet reached the deep stress levels of historical bear markets.
Darkfost pointed out that the current AVIV ratio indicator is around 0.8. In comparison, during historical bear market phases, this indicator typically drops to 0.5–0.6, which could correspond to a deeper pullback of about 40%–50%.
The analysis suggests that the entry of institutional funds and ETFs in this cycle has not altered Bitcoin's cyclical characteristics, and the market continues to operate within its inherent structure. Although there is evident devaluation pressure at present, it may not necessarily need to drop to the extreme levels of historical bear markets to trigger a rebound. Overall, caution should still be exercised regarding cyclical fluctuations.
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