Strategy Thunderstorm Countdown? Did preferred stock interest lead to financial crisis? Unfortunately, this is wrong! At the beginning, through detailed data calculations, I found that Strategy can still support almost risk-free for four years even with a 3% increase in interest expenses. The main text begins When I saw my friend @ Airdrop_Guard discussing the possibility of Strategy's explosion, overall I wrote it very seriously and the data statistics were quite accurate. Indeed, Strategy's account only has $1.1 billion, but in reality, Strategy's preferred stocks are not four, but five. I underestimated the euro preferred stock STRE. Indeed, according to my friend's statement, the interest of 1.711 billion US dollars that needs to be paid for these five items can only cover about 235 days, or approximately 7.7 months, based on the current USD deposit. This data is completely correct. Why do I say that the data is correct but the conclusion is incorrect? The key point is that the buddies have overlooked a very important key point. The main source of interest payments under Strategy is ATM, rather than cash reserves and selling Bitcoin: native. This is the most crucial, and do you know how much Strategy can currently use ATM funds for? The answer is close to 51 billion US dollars! among which MSTR's remaining ATM limit is 25.74 billion US dollars STRC's remaining ATM limit is 17.51 billion US dollars STRD has a remaining ATM limit of 4 billion US dollars STRK has a remaining ATM limit of $2.1 billion STRF has a remaining ATM limit of 1.62 billion US dollars So interesting, if we simply add all the remaining $51 billion ATM credit, the time that Strategy can support is about 30.4 years. (This does not include the $1.1 billion in cash that has been accounted for) Of course, the reference value for 30.4 years is very low, as the issuance of preferred stock ATMs will add dividend obligations. Common stock ATMs do not have fixed dividends and are considered the cleanest form of financing, while preferred stock ATMs essentially exchange new fixed income securities for cash, which will continue to drive up future cash expenditures. So if all the remaining preferred stock ATMs are issued and the dividend yield is roughly calculated based on the increase, STRC is 14.5%, STRF is 13%, STRD is 13%, STRK is 11%, and STRE is 13%. After all the remaining ATMs of these five preferred stocks are issued, the annual increase in preferred stock dividends is approximately $3.5 billion. The current annualized dividend and debt interest payment pressure for Strategy will increase from $1.711 billion to approximately $2.18 billion. So the final annualized payment is approximately 5.68 billion US dollars. So, with a slightly more rigorous calculation, if all Strategy's ATMs are used up, it can cover the interest of Strategy's five preferred stocks for approximately 9 years. Of course, since we need to calculate, we need to be more rigorous. We cannot only consider debt interest, but also need to consider the repayment of Strategy's debt principal at maturity. Here, we need to first clarify that the $1.711 billion already includes debt interest, but not debt principal. That is to say, the debt interest is already under annualized payment pressure and cannot be added again. What is not included is the principal that needs to be repaid when future convertible bonds mature, are put up for sale, redeemed, or cannot be converted into shares. According to the latest disclosure by Strategy, after completing a $1.5 billion buyback of 2029 convertible bonds, Strategy's convertible bond principal has decreased from $8.2 billion to around $6.7 billion. In addition to the dividend testing mentioned earlier, the final annualized payment pressure is expected to reach $5.68 billion. Covering 5.68 billion US dollars with 45.39 billion US dollars after deducting debt principal, the coverage period is approximately 8 years. It still needs to be emphasized that this does not mean that Strategy will definitely last for 8 years, nor does it mean that problems will definitely arise after 8 years. Because the principal of the debt is not due at once today, many convertible bonds still have the possibility of conversion, repurchase, refinancing, or being resolved through common stock ATMs. But as long as MSTR common stock ATMs can continue to sell, Strategy's cash pressure will be manageable. Wait a minute, actually 8 years is not over yet, because the funds of Strategy ATM are not only used for debt repayment and cash reserves, but also need to purchase Bitcoin spot. Based on the current situation where half is used for reserves or interest payments, and half is used for purchasing Bitcoin: native spot, the actual support time is 4 years. (Roughly calculated, it is actually around 3.7 years) To put it simply, as long as MSTR common stock ATMs can still be sold, Strategy still has relatively comfortable money to use because selling common stock does not bring fixed interest pressure. If the common stock ATM cannot be sold, we can only continue to sell the preferred stock ATM, which does not mean that something will happen immediately, because the preferred stock ATM can still be exchanged for cash. The problem is that this kind of money is becoming increasingly expensive, and for every additional preferred stock sold, the annual dividends to be paid will continue to increase in the future. The real danger is that common stock ATMs cannot be sold, preferred stock ATMs cannot be sold, and convertible bonds cannot be further financed. At that time, Strategy will truly face two pressures at the same time: paying off the debt principal and continuing to pay preferred stock dividends. Overall, as long as Bitcoin does not experience a deep decline (a slight drop is not a problem), according to the current situation, supporting it for another 4 years, that is, by 2030, is basically not a problem. (And will continue to buy nearly $22.6 billion worth of Bitcoin) End.