Nancy|Apr 03, 2026 09:54
I have read this article twice and have digested many proprietary terms. I don't know if this is the correct way to understand it?!
The so-called falling below the 200 day moving average ≠ definitely entering a bear market
Maitong told us through data that about 58% of the price drops from 1928 to now were fake, and only 5.8% of them really became bear markets, so we only need to care about whether we can recover after the drop
The real key: how to fall is more important than whether to fall or not
✔️ The safety drop method can actually find opportunities in it. Sometimes a sudden drop may be a news surface, but it usually rebounds quickly, which can be understood as "emotional smashing"
✔️ The dangerous falling method is actually a gradual decline, a slight decrease every day, and seemingly unnoticed but actually turning bearish, which is the easiest way to turn into a bear market
Finally, I think the most helpful aspect of the whole movie for me is the 3/5/10/20 day judgment method:
✔️ Do not move around for the first 3 days
✔️ Day 5~Start judging (if the moving average starts to decline, it is recommended to reduce positions)
✔️ Day 10- Most Critical (Liquidity Issue)
✔️ Day 20- Risk has arrived
In response to the current environmental economy, it is not just about falling below the moving average, but also includes these three things:
1. Oil prices 2. Interest rates 3. Technology stocks begin to decline
So in the next 2-3 weeks, we can focus on observing whether "oil prices+US bond yields+technology stocks have stopped falling"
If 2 out of 3 improve, it is highly likely that it is only a correction; If everything doesn't improve, then this time it won't be an ordinary decline, and what everyone is worried about may be about to happen
I think the US stock market is really fun. Learning about the US stock market is very similar to this market. It won't directly tell you the direction, but the difficulty keeps increasing Go go
Follow Maitong to learn about the US stock market
@MSX_CN
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