There may be many obstacles on Walsh's way to take office. Trump needs to exchange more interests with different small groups for this purpose, but it is still possible to take office in the end. After taking office, the current decision-making mechanism of the Federal Reserve, interest rate policy, especially the impact on US bonds and liquidity, will be greatly affected. If oil prices and inflation are controlled, there may be 1-2 interest rate cuts in the second half of this year, especially in July and September. Therefore, the "buy expectations stage" about a month ahead may be the beginning of the bull market, which means that the Q3 market may improve. In the case of inevitable global inflation caused by the blockade of the Hormuz Strait, Walsh may take an attitude of tolerating inflation to cooperate with Trump. But if oil prices remain high, the room for cooperation is also very limited. The specific form may be to suspend interest rate cuts but not raise them, while stabilizing the long end through "orderly QT" communication. At this stage, the US Treasury curve will be very distorted. So next, we need to closely monitor the progress of Walsh's inauguration. As the obstacles to Walsh's inauguration are cleared and the situation gradually becomes clear, the market will gradually start buying expectations of interest rate cuts. Once you have overcome the uncertainty of tedious procedures, you can seize the opportunity to add interest rate friendly assets such as gold, silver, stocks, and coins. Especially when gold rebounded to 4800, it may have already completed the rebound trend. If a pullback position of around 4500 can be given in the future, we can start to increase our holdings, but the most important short-term factors affecting the market still depend on unexpected events such as wars.