Even the Eastern 'Polymarket' is starting to heat up. Probable, a project invested in by Yzi Labs, is a prediction market on BNB Chain, incubated by PancakeSwap. Just saw they launched a 'Spring Festival Special.' The Spring Festival season, watched by over a billion people, is naturally the biggest attention pool in the Chinese-speaking world. Aside from predicting the lineup of celebrities for the Spring Festival Gala, the most popular prediction topic on Probable is: Will CZ send a Chinese New Year greeting in Chinese? Currently, 97% on Probable are betting Yes. Honestly, I feel like some of the people betting on this topic might not have fully understood the question. The key to this question is: 'in Chinese.' I used grok to analyze CZ's past five years of Spring Festival tweets: 2021: English, "Happy New Year"; 2022: English, "Happy Chinese New Year"; 2023: English, "Happy Chinese New Year" with a rabbit emoji; 2024: First appearance of Chinese, bilingual greeting, "新年快乐！Happy Chinese New Year!"; 2025: Pure Chinese, "新年快乐！" Looking at it over five years, the probability of CZ tweeting a greeting in Chinese doesn’t seem to justify the 97% chance of winning. Feels like the 3.1% betting No might actually have a shot. Of course, who knows if CZ will notice everyone betting on this prediction topic on Probable, and reverse the outcome of reality through prediction market feedback, lol.