First of all, I do have a lot of TSLA and SPCX in my hands, and I have always been extremely optimistic about the big game that Musk is playing. But just finished reading the latest Tesla valuation model released by ARK today, I can't help but want to vent my frustration: this pie chart is a bit too far fetched. ARK predicts that Tesla could reach $4400 per share by 2031, and even see a bull market of $5000, corresponding to a terrifying market value of $17.5 trillion! Let's first take a look at how ARK is calculated: How much do you want to sell? By 2031, we aim to sell 8.1 million Robotaxis, 10.2 million regular electric vehicles, 1 million Optimus robots, and an additional 2278 GWh of energy storage. Where does the money come from: The total revenue needs to reach $1.45 trillion. Among them, Robotaxi took the lead, contributing 753 billion US dollars (52%); Automobile sales account for 320 billion yuan; Optimus accounts for 212 billion; Energy storage accounts for 163 billion. How exaggerated the profit is: EBITDA reached $902 billion, with a profit margin of up to 61%! Valuation core support: Robotaxi accounts for 80% of Tesla's valuation, while Optimus accounts for 14%. ARK believes that the humanoid robot market can generate a $26 trillion market, which is even more exaggerated than the $10 to $15 trillion they set for Robotaxi. • Cost of autonomous driving: They calculated that Cybercab's operating cost per mile is 40% lower than Waymo's next-generation product. • Computing power investment: By 2031, the cumulative cost of AI infrastructure will be $225 billion, including Terafab developed in collaboration with SpaceX. Even more exaggeratedly, ARK even included a god level assumption: if SpaceX and Tesla merge, their combined revenue in 2031 will be 3.8 trillion yuan, EBITDA will be 2.74 trillion yuan, and their market value will directly exceed 50 trillion US dollars. To be honest, I haven't calculated such a long-term mathematical model myself. But I have always believed that SpaceX will become the world's most valuable company in the future, even the first to reach a market value of $100 trillion. The merger of the two companies is indeed the best path to the end. Two months ago, when SPCX was only $110, I called on everyone in my community to buy it. But whether we are optimistic or not, we need to talk about some reality, right? Do you know how much Tesla's revenue will be in 2025? Approximately 95 billion US dollars. ARK means that within 5 years, the revenue needs to increase by more than 15 times, and the profit margin needs to reach a level that even top SaaS software companies envy. And 80% of the valuation is invested in a Robotaxi that has not yet been truly commercialized on a large scale. We are optimistic about autonomous driving AI、 Robots, we have to admit that believing in the future and betting on not making any mistakes for the next 5 years are completely different things. • Implementation of autonomous driving technology Regulatory approvals in various countries Large scale mass production supply chain Optimus is truly commercialized Billions of dollars in AI infrastructure Which one doesn't have to be nibbled on step by step? The funniest thing is the bear market scenario of ARK, with a market value of $13.4 trillion in 2031. I just want to ask, since when did 13.4 trillion yuan become a pessimistic expectation? Although I am also a die hard fan of Musk and have great confidence in Tesla and SpaceX, regarding the data of Sister Wood The model is really difficult to digest. It's understandable to draw a pie in the primary market, but I also admire Sister Mu for being able to draw such a big pie in the secondary market, DYOR (The report is placed in the comments section) ) This article is sponsored by @ binancezh, titled 'Binance Buying US Stocks: Global Assets, Zero Second Time Difference, One Click Delivery'!