深潮TechFlow|Oct 19, 2026 07:53
[KOSPI Plunges Over 14% in a Week, Multiple Brokerages Suggest Near-Term Bottom but Caution on AI Credit Risks]
According to Deep Tide TechFlow on October 19, citing Yonhap News Agency, the KOSPI index fell over 14% last week, retreating 37.8% from its two-year high. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) dropped to 4.6x, approaching levels seen during previous short-term sharp declines that stabilized. Yuanta Securities believes the sentiment and liquidity bottom is near 5,500 points. Hana Securities predicts the index will exhibit a "W-shaped" trend, with a second bottom around 5,300 points, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio (PBR) of 1x at approximately 5,150 points. Hyundai Securities noted that this week, attention should be paid to the intraday low of 5,262 points from July as a support level; if breached, the next threshold would be 5,000 points.
On the liquidity front, foreign investors have been net sellers of KOSPI for six consecutive months since May. According to Kiwoom Securities, foreign investors net sold over 11 trillion KRW last week, primarily concentrated in the semiconductor sector. Kiwoom Securities forecasts the KOSPI range this week to be between 5,200 and 5,900 points, stating that the strength of any rebound will depend on the earnings reports of major U.S. tech companies like Meta and changes in AI-related credit risks.
The market will focus on Meta's earnings report on the 21st (local time) to assess whether AI investments can translate into revenue and profit. Multiple brokerages believe that the stabilization of U.S. semiconductor stocks, easing of AI-related credit risks, and a shift in foreign investor behavior to net buying are key variables in determining whether the KOSPI has bottomed out.
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