The risk triggered by the transmission path of CPI data and how the current market is pricing it in 1. The overall MoM increase of 0.6% was completely in line with expectations, but the YoY increase exceeded by just 0.1 point. This data has led to a higher probability of a rate hike in October. 2. From the rate hike probability, we move to interest rates: 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields continue to rise. The market is recalibrating when the hike will happen and how high it will go. 3. The US Dollar Index hit a one-year high. Last night, AI infrastructure took a heavy hit, and CRWV's unsecured bond yields soared to 15%, making future financing more difficult and requiring a reassessment of debt repayment capacity. After a night of market tug-of-war, the probability of no rate hike in October has risen to 79%, but the probability of a 25BP hike in December has increased to 80%. The risk has been postponed but not eliminated—oil remains a ticking time bomb hanging overhead. This morning's drop was dragged down by Korean stocks. The worsening rate environment also pulled down many growth stocks. AI infrastructure completely collapsed last night, which brings up an even more critical issue: - One more rate hike, and the risk to AI infrastructure will rise to an unacceptable level for the market, posing significant short-term risks. - On the other hand, there’s the long-term risk of inflation. Core inflation is sticky but hasn’t accelerated to the point where action *must* be taken this month. So, what the market is telling you isn’t that tightening is over, but that it’s delayed. Tonight at 20:30, we’ll see PPI and retail data, and on Friday, Waller’s final public speech. The Fed has leaned dovish in recent statements. The Fed’s core mission is inflation and employment, along with maintaining moderate long-term rates—these last two are equally important.