彼得兔|10月 14, 2026 14:16
Looking at the entire storage sector, MU might be the most resilient stock. Unlike traditional DRAM/NAND cyclical stocks, Micron has already entered the core supply chain of AI data centers.
The logic we mentioned in May is now further validated: Micron's HBM4 has been mass-produced and shipped for NVIDIA's Vera Rubin, and HBM4E is planned to scale up in 2027. Meanwhile, AI products like SOCAMM, server memory, and PCIe Gen6 SSDs are also expanding rapidly.
On May 21, we pointed out that Micron's upward trend was not over. It was just a short-term pullback, and after the pullback, the rise would continue. Following that, Micron surged by over 45% ✅.
In the June 28 video analysis, we warned about the end of the storage rally. On July 31, we tweeted that the rise starting from 737.88 was a rebound against the red short-term decline in Chart 1, not a new upward trend. This view has now been confirmed again, proving that our segmentation of the black wave rally and subsequent market structure was both predictive and reasonable. So, what’s next?
As shown in Chart 1, Micron's black wave was a weekly-level rally. The decline starting from 1255 was a weekly-level pullback against it. The red wave decline was the first part of this pullback, and the subsequent blue wave rally was a rebound against the red wave decline. Both waves are daily-level movements.
Under this path, the movement starting from 1098.9 is a pullback of the same level as the red wave. If it’s a strong adjustment, it could end in a sideways consolidation or range-bound movement rather than necessarily breaking the previous low.
After the adjustment in the red box ends, Micron has the potential to complete the entire weekly-level pullback against the black wave rally. What follows could at least be a weekly-level rebound, or even a new upward trend.
Compared to companies more reliant on traditional storage price cycles, MU stands to benefit from the HBM upgrade + AI data center expansion. Therefore, after the adjustment ends, Micron’s potential upside could be even greater.
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