Brothers, the first three articles have covered the Fed's interest rate hike this time. Next, we will add something that is often brushed up but easily misread: a dot matrix. Every time we discuss interest rates, someone always holds a few points and says, 'How many more will we increase at the end of the year?' 'How much will we definitely lower next year?'. But the dot matrix is not so certain. It is part of the Federal Reserve's economic forecast summary, first publicly released in January 2012. The purpose is simple: to let the market not only know today's decisions, but also understand policymakers' judgments on future interest rates. Each point represents what level a participant believes the policy interest rate at the end of a year should be based on their own economic outlook. Pay attention to two keywords: "personal judgment" and "year-end". It is not the voting result of the next meeting, nor is it a scheduled interest rate hike calendar. The people who submitted the forecast also include local Federal Reserve chairmen who did not have voting rights in the FOMC that year. So, seeing many points at a certain interest rate level indicates that many participants' current judgments are close, but it does not mean that the committee has jointly committed to implementing them. And these points are anonymous, you cannot assume that the highest one is a hawkish official, nor can you arbitrarily connect points from different years as the same person's interest rate path. Let me give you another purely hypothetical example: If the median interest rate at the end of this year is 0.5 percentage points higher than the midpoint of the current target range, under the assumption of a 25 basis point interest rate hike each time, it can be roughly understood as the net magnitude of two interest rate hikes. But it didn't tell you which two meetings to add, nor did it rule out adjusting direction midway. Why do you still want to watch? Because the market cares not only about how expensive money is today, but also how long it may be expensive in the future. Changes in the judgment of interest rate paths can affect the pricing of bonds, stocks, and other assets. However, as inflation, employment, and economic growth change, officials' judgments will also change. It's not surprising that the next version of the dot matrix is different from this one. My understanding is that it is a policy judgment snapshot that will be updated. Understanding it can reduce the rhythm of headlines like 'The Federal Reserve has already been confirmed'; But using it to ensure that one's transactions are always right can actually lead to losses. Next article, let's talk about the truly practical part: with so many points, where should we start with?