Major turning point for crypto regulation. The market bet on the CLARITY Act becoming law this year has collapsed to just around 8%. And this isn’t just any ordinary crypto bill. The CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) is one of the key bills in the U.S. aimed at establishing a "crypto market structure." Simply put, it’s trying to solve issues that the crypto community has been debating for years: What counts as a security? What counts as a digital commodity? What does the SEC regulate? What does the CFTC regulate? What rules should exchanges, brokers, and custodians follow? The core goal of the bill is to clearly define the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC and establish a framework for regulating digital asset trading platforms and intermediaries. The House of Representatives had already passed the CLARITY Act, but the real issue now lies in the Senate. In the latest critical procedural vote, the bill secured a 50–49 majority but failed to reach the 60-vote threshold needed to advance, meaning it’s temporarily stalled. This is why market expectations have plummeted. As shown in the chart, Kalshi indicates that the probability of passing a qualifying crypto market structure bill before 2027 has dropped to just 8.4%. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s bet on the CLARITY Act becoming law by 2026 has fallen to around 7%. The real significance of this isn’t about short-term coin prices. It’s about the fact that the U.S. had a chance to move the crypto industry from: "Relying on SEC/CFTC enforcement and administrative rules" to: "Having Congress directly establish long-term, clear market structure laws." Now, this path has hit a major setback, at least until 2026. So, what the market needs to watch next isn’t just whether Bitcoin can hold its price. It’s: How much longer will we have to wait for regulatory "Clarity" in the U.S. crypto space? This could become one of the most critical policy variables for institutional funds, U.S.-based exchanges like Coinbase, and the entire American crypto industry moving forward.