Saw someone share this in the group, saying that MA120 is the most effective risk-reward indicator for bitcoin:native. This is essentially just another version of the $1M BTC DCA strategy I mentioned earlier. BTC's returns have never been evenly distributed. The phases where it truly makes money or loses money are often highly concentrated. Since 2019, most of BTC's meaningful gains have been concentrated in just a few key trends. For example, the second half of 2020, post-2023, and the rounds following ETF expectations and official launches—these are all similar: Once a trend forms, it can generate all the returns of the previous one or two years in just a few months. The reverse is also true. BTC's major losses rarely come from a single 10% drop in a day. Instead, once the trend turns bearish, it can drop 20%, 30%, or even 50% in a steady decline. So the core principle of a strategy based on MA120 is: stay in the market as much as possible during bull markets, and minimize exposure during bear markets. I keep a 30% base position because once BTC enters a major trend, you can't afford to be completely out of the game. The 45% flexible position is because BTC is also a highly cyclical asset. Buying 1 BTC at $70K versus $50K—sure, both might make money five years later, but the capital efficiency they consume is completely different. So the biggest issue with holding BTC long-term is this: Are you willing to endure every full bear market just to capture those few fat right-tail returns? That's all!