TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|7月 04, 2026 11:04
Taking advantage of the sharp drop in Micron MU on Thursday, I reflected on the development trend of US stock themes in the past two years. Do you still remember that in 2023, the market hyped up superconductivity, and in 2024, there was speculation about nuclear fusion and life sciences. But these themes are not very mature and only exist in the laboratory, too far away from the general public, and in the end, they all come to nothing. The AI theme is the only high-tech narrative that sinks to the forefront, where users can directly use it and the models are constantly iterated and updated, making people feel like they are improving their life experience. The success of the 2B2C end has fully explained the logic, and a verifiable financial report loop is the market's favorite. This not only tells the story of how the stars and the sea change the future of humanity, but also how many GPUs are sold and how much data center power is needed, which ordinary people can understand and see. What we are referring to as the end of AI narrative stages now refers to the transition of AI from a blind expansion period without considering revenue to a profit audit period, just like after intensive sowing and sprouting, seedlings need to carry out inter seedling operations. The first stage of AI narrative is already mature, crowded, and difficult to extrapolate linearly based on the same logic. The first stage of buying is' who has the most future ', and by then the market has basically had the answer. This year's three major IPOs are tasked with the monetization of successful players. The next second stage of the market will be about 'who can turn the future into cash flow'. At this point, funds will start looking for the next asset that can sustain long-term imagination: space, defense, energy, power grids, robots, quantum, nuclear energy, and even some branches of life sciences will take turns on the table. To some extent, SpaceX is a tentative transition from AI to aerospace themes. After all, it has only stepped out of AI with one leg, and its overall direction is quite exploratory. If it doesn't go well, Anthropic and OpenAI can bring the market back to the AI narrative in the future. Previously, we used to say that the cryptocurrency industry led by Bitcoin played the role of a reservoir for the US dollar. However, in the past six months, it has become clear that the core tasks of absorbing global surplus savings, maintaining the attractiveness of US dollar assets, supporting residents' balance sheets, and regulating total demand through valuation cycles have shifted to US stocks, especially AI concept stocks. The macro function of the US stock foam is not only to withdraw money, but also to eliminate excess money. By turning liquidity into high-value assets, transforming consumption impulses into wealth savings, and shifting inflationary pressures from commodity and service prices to financial asset prices; Then, during the drawdown, the total demand is suppressed by shrinking wealth, shrinking collateral, and tightening financing conditions. This ingenious design has transformed the original commodity inflation into asset inflation, playing a role in maintaining social stability. This is also the core reason why financial assets such as Bitcoin in the US stock market need to constantly seek new narratives. A high valuation market without a new narrative will be forced to return to the anchor of fundamentals such as cash flow, interest rates, and profit margins. This makes it difficult to maintain a high valuation. So just like Labubu, a target in financial storytelling can be useful, but not too useful. Being able to tell stories and maintain emotional value is the most important thing. The US stock market is not simply a reflection of economic fundamentals, but a narrative balance sheet of the US dollar system. AI is the most successful foam container in the last round. In the next round, the market will look for harder, larger and more policy endorsed containers. However, money will not be directly destroyed by the stock market, but will only be redistributed or contracted in asset revaluation, credit contraction and official pumping. This content is sponsored by @ BITstocks_CN. Buy BIT-16000+US stocks and ETFs on the US stock market, hold real positions, and enjoy dividends.
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