I still quite agree with Guilin's point of view. As for whether 59 is the bottom of the pancake I know what my friends think, this year may be like 22 or 18. If the panic clears again and the price approaches a sharp drop, then naturally 50000, 40000 or even lower will be reached. I think dialectically myself. On the morning of Monday, I believe my friends also saw that the US and Iran signed an agreement, a comprehensive ceasefire, and oil prices fell below 80%. Yesterday, I followed the bearish trend and thought that the agreement would be signed on Sunday US time, but it was indeed signed. I also ate a little. Why is Trump so anxious? It may also be that at the interest meeting in the early morning of the 18th, Walsh made his debut, lowering the market's expectations of oil prices and downward inflation, so that Walsh's speech would not be so passive, and it would also dispel the market's expectations of interest rate increases. If things can continue to go smoothly like this, then everyone will naturally be happy. Can't that be? What about Trump again? This is the risk, for the risk of encryption, the last time the big pie fell from 7 to over 6, it is more due to the repeated fluctuations of the US and Iran. But how big is the risk? How much emotional panic can it cause? I can't say for sure now. Besides that, are there any other risks? Will there be another black swan on big platforms? Is the probability high? How much emotional panic can there really be. For now, we can only watch while walking. Of course, if everything goes smoothly between the US and Iran, and if the strait is navigable, the oil price will return to the pre station level of 68 or below, and remain at this level for a long time, then the expectation of inflation will fall and the expectation of interest rate cuts will increase, which will naturally have a good boosting effect on the risk market (crypto+pancake). So maybe the reversal is really coming, right?!