Feilong Daily｜June 9, 2026 No change in view: Continue to observe $BTC spot, short contracts at highs, start DCA below $55K. (1) Rising oil prices suppress rate cut expectations Due to the Iran-Israel conflict, the Strait of Hormuz has yet to resume normal navigation, and the market's expectations for recovery keep getting pushed back. Disrupted navigation drives up energy costs. If oil prices remain high for an extended period, inflation will be hard to bring down quickly. The logic is simple: High oil prices → Inflation stays high → Lower probability of rate cuts → Pressure on risk assets. Without the support of rate cut expectations, it’s hard for the market to sustain a major rally. (2) Risk of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan According to *Nikkei News*, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to 1% at its June meeting. This is something to watch closely. Last August, Japan's rate hike triggered significant volatility in global risk assets. If the yen strengthens again this time, it could lead to unwinding of carry trades, putting short-term pressure on risk assets like $BTC and the Nasdaq. (3) Strategy Focus on three key signals moving forward: The outcome of the Bank of Japan meeting on June 16, progress in the Strait of Hormuz, and whether $BTC ETF fund flows turn positive. Opportunities come from waiting, not guessing. DCA in the $55K-$49K range and wait for confirmation signals to appear!