Will the sale of 2.5 million MSTR BTC bring down the cryptocurrency market? (I hope all encryption users and practitioners are patient and take a look. There is no AI content, pure knowledge, very useful, and it takes about an hour.) I also completed all the option flow orders at 4am, but after much hesitation, I still managed to get this article out It seems that users in the cryptocurrency market really don't know what they are facing, and this article is not completely illogical. As an options specialist blogger who has transferred to the US stock market, I must talk to my mother's family (cryptocurrency community), cryptocurrency projects, and exchanges about some important things. ———————— What will happen if MSTR sells? This is a symbol of the breakdown of the narrative of faith, and it is also the beginning of systemic risk. @Saylor promises never to sell BTC. The total amount of BTC held by MSTR is 843706 The business model of MSTR is extremely foolish, as it heavily relies on the positive rise of BTC. Everyone can see that he has been chasing high BTC in his past buying points. The higher the pressure at that time, the worse the decline now. This will result in the market's original pricing being that MSTR will not sell BTC, just like how our encrypted users assume that Satoshi Nakamoto's address will not move, and if it does, their souls will be shattered. The degree is not that severe, but the impact is similar. The same applies to the pricing of BTC by institutions, as a large bank that promised not to sell BTC sold it. Institutions must take some insurance measures, selling first to drive sales later. Although MSTR sold 32 BTC from May 26th to 31st, it has to distribute dividends to STRC every month, so the act of MSTR selling BTC is very continuous. The next one is on June 30th, and Strategy has proposed to change STRC from monthly dividends to bi monthly dividends, which means it will be distributed twice a month. The relevant shareholder voting is scheduled for June 8th, 2026. This will accelerate the pace of selling coins. The monthly sell-off of 32 BTC is very much like a butterfly effect. This almost means the bankruptcy of MSTR's business model. The support for the decline has also become fragile due to the transformation of North American mines. At present, the shutdown coin price is still rising again, and the current 200T machine is about 55000-60000 US dollars, which is the limit of this round of selling ———————— Other issues with MSTR At present, IGV (Software ETF) includes component stocks MSTR at around 1.8% The possibility of exclusion is extremely high (almost inevitable) Based on the current total asset size (AUM) of IGV, a total of $14 billion would likely lead to a potential direct sell-off of $252 million by MSTR. Here, I really want to ask @ Taylor, are you ready to sell this time? The next warehouse adjustment is on the third Friday of June, are you ready? I also want to say to my brothers in the cryptocurrency circle, do you know what impact the selling pressure of $252 million will have on MSTR? ———————— What problems will further decline in MSTR lead to? As is well known, there are three major historical IPOs this year, and these stocks are highly likely to be included in the index three weeks after the IPO, which will squeeze out the stocks at the end of the index. Taking NDX (NASDAQ 100 Index) as an example, the market value range that was kicked out is approximately $20 billion, and the current MSTR market value is $47.6 billion. If MSTR falls below $60, there will be a chance to trigger NDX's exit mechanism. I believe that if MSTR's outdated business model really reaches this level, it will also be the first stock to be kicked out of NDX. (Minimum of $100 this year) ———————— What secondary problems can MSTR cause? There is a common belief in the cryptocurrency industry that most Defi returns are built on a positive market rally, which is why the beginning of most deep bears often evolves after a BTC crash. ETH currently has systemic risks, with the vast majority of exposure being upward. However, the ETH POS mechanism means that ETH has no external anchoring value (such as the electricity anchoring value of POW) So all Defi returns built on ETH, I think, will be risky. This is something that can be avoided without Defi According to Defillama's data, currently Defi's TVL has dropped by half from its peak, dropping from 180B to 77B When there is an expectation of a downward spiral in the market, the problem of positive returns arises, and returns cannot be distributed normally through positive returns. Decentralized returns pose a huge obstacle to revenue distribution. This often 1. The sharp decline in yield accelerates the escape of stakers 2. Defi's expected revenue has decreased, increasing the possibility of the project running away When Defi, which originally had trust risks, cannot obtain excess returns and systemic risks arise, institutional level users will be the first to leave. Here it is still selling first to drive sales later. All positive exposures on Defi will face systemic risk challenges. Lido AAVE Morpho SKY Eigenlayer Ethena Spark etherfi maple falcon Kamino Pendle Wait, wait, wait Which one of you will have an accident? Is multi chain the most vulnerable target? Is Curve also applicable? —————— If all the above assumptions are possible, can we spend a budget to conduct a re audit of smart contracts? I sincerely hope that you can listen and give Defi a way out, as well as ETH a way out. Defense is always defeated when it is most vulnerable. —————— People may speak softly, but I truly hope that the leaders of the exchange will see the following statement Besides, what worries me the most is the asset reserves of various exchanges. Against the backdrop of excess reserves, should they make some contingency plans in response to the expected decline in MSTR and the possibility of Defi running away. To avoid being unable to take emergency actions in a timely manner when systemic risks arise. Do products with positive exposure under the exchange system also need to have corresponding emergency plans in place to prevent users from incurring more losses and losing customer sources. —————— At the end, encryption/Web3 has entered the anti-counterfeiting cycle, and we hope that every link in the encryption market will guard the last post and give encryption a beautiful ending.