Since the joint punishment of Tiger, Futu, and Changqiao by eight ministries yesterday, there have been endless discussions both inside and outside the circle. The points of concern for everyone include but are not limited to whether this punishment will expand to the cryptocurrency circle - causing the cryptocurrency circle, which has already suffered heavy losses due to the clearance in recent years, to be completely wiped out; Or will the existing demand after being punished in the traditional way spill over into the cryptocurrency circle for everyone to enjoy. I think the former may not happen, while the latter will have a gradual development. This punishment happened coincidentally on the same day that Walsh took office, and the two intersected on the US stock market. Do you still remember that not long after September 24, 2021, the cryptocurrency market reached its peak and then began a long bear market. Will this indicate a bull market peak for the US stock market? In fact, in terms of scale, the proportion of China's overseas capital in the US stock market is not large, and it may not even be the last straw that breaks the camel's back. However, in practical terms, China's foreign trade surplus reached a historic high last year, and exports continue to be strong this year, especially after the start of the Iran War on February 28th. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz dealt a devastating blow to the industrial chains of other economies, and China's foreign trade has been weak. This new regulation actually interrupts the reinvestment path of Chinese capital and reduces the recycling of the US dollar in the US stock market. This situation, combined with the tight liquidity of the US dollar since last year, the depreciation of the US dollar exchange rate, and the bursting of US bond yields, can actually be considered as a desperate situation. From the exploration of stablecoins represented by Circle to the last centimeter, allowing global funds to buy US stocks and bonds, the flow of funds is undoubtedly tight. Although Chinese capital is relatively small compared to the total number of US stocks, as a marginal increment, it is a force that cannot be underestimated. Compared to the cryptocurrency industry, despite losing a large number of reinforcements from the Chinese market, Da Bing still reached 126k last year. It is not difficult to imagine that if it had not been cleared at that time, it would have been easy for Da Bing to break 200000 in the parallel world. At a time when the US stock market is already at a high level, funds can only stick together in top technology stocks before liquidity pumps such as OpenAI and SpaceX exit. Once the giant whale exits and the supply chain is cut off, the high point is likely to be lower than expected. The coincidence on May 22nd was that China tightened its unlicensed cross-border buying channels for US stocks, while the US had a new chairman who had to face inflation and long-term debt pressure. One is the narrowing of capital entry, and the other is that the discount rate center is unwilling to go down. Essentially, this punishment may be more of a political factor. China and the United States are inherently two extremes of detachment from reality to virtual reality. Moreover, after the comprehensive efforts of Big A in October 2024, the country will definitely prefer to keep the meat in the pot rather than transfer assets. The attitude of the regulatory authorities towards the cryptocurrency industry and stock speculation in the US is actually consistent. At the beginning, when the scale is still small and will not cause social impact, it can be opened up as a test field. Once it becomes larger or causes more serious social impact, it is inevitable to adopt a one size fits all approach for the convenience of management. However, the currency circle has long been characterized, and the space for new policies is not as large as that of traditional Internet brokers. To put it simply, the cryptocurrency industry has run out of meat under the strict control of fiat currency inflows and outflows and the crackdown on offshore fishing due to the card cutting operation. The administrative cost of strengthening management is greater than the benefits, so the motivation for continued regulation is not strong. After traditional securities firms are shut down, a portion of those who are extremely eager to allocate US dollar assets will inevitably use stablecoins as a springboard. But this will not be an instant flood, because the threshold for learning to use cold wallets and avoid card freezing risks is still high, so this fund will only slowly and gradually infiltrate the cryptocurrency market like underground water. From a cyclical perspective, due to the misalignment of financial cycles between China and the United States, they have been competing for a reservoir of funds. At the national level, if the huge surplus earned from foreign trade is allowed to be taken over by US tech giants through channels such as Tiger, Long Bridge, and Futu, it is equivalent to injecting blood into the US tech hegemony. Forcefully closing the door and cooperating with the active policies of the domestic capital market is forcing this part of wealth to stay in the country and find targets. Whether investing in large-scale A or expanding production or strengthening consumption, both are important measures to promote internal circulation.