XAU Gold Market Analysis May 14, 2026.06 On March 1st, I proposed that gold would first rise to 5400+and then fall below 4400 before starting a large-scale rebound. At that time, many people did not agree with this viewpoint. The mainstream market view was that the adjustment of gold had already ended at 4400, and the beginning of 4400 was a new round of rise, which would soon directly break through 5600+. In my analysis video in March, I stated my reasons for not agreeing with this viewpoint - if we consider the section between 5600-4400 as a complete adjustment, the level is too small and the structure is too far fetched. Subsequently, gold rose to 5400+and then fell in response. My current view is that assuming 4100 is a temporary low point, the rebound from 4100 is likely not yet over. The period from 4100 to 4890 (blue segment rising in Figure 2) is likely only the first part of the rebound. 4890 started running as a correction against the upward trend of 4100-4890. There are two situations here: Firstly, a strong pullback. Recently, it will no longer fall below 4500 and will adopt a convergent structure to digest selling pressure. Secondly, deep callback. If gold falls below the 4500 line, as long as an adjustment endpoint can be found within the red support range in Figure 2, there will still be a high point above 4890 in the future. That is to say, the rebound from 4100 is likely not over yet, and the market needs time to digest the pullback against 4100-4890. This judgment is also consistent with the fundamentals, and the factors that suppress gold in the short term are very clear: The strong US dollar, high US bond yields, fluctuating inflationary pressures, and expectations of short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have been suppressed. All of these will suppress the short-term elasticity of non interest bearing asset gold. The fundamentals are not a problem, but we have encountered a joint suppression from the US dollar, interest rates, and profit taking. The logic of mid-term support for gold has not disappeared yet: Geopolitical risks remain, inflation remains high, "big players" buying gold is still long-term support, and there is still a net inflow of gold ETFs in the first quarter. These factors determine that it is difficult for gold to directly lead to a unilateral collapse in the short term In terms of operation, at this stage, I recommend ordinary people to do spot gold, paper gold, or deposit gold. The reason is also very simple: At present, gold has not stopped falling, and futures demand too high a pace, making it difficult to find stop losses. Even if the direction is correct, it does not mean that futures can be held. During the callback process, if there are several retracements, the leveraged position is easily washed out. Spot, paper gold, and stored gold are more suitable for phased layout and holding in high-level logic. Personal trading system analysis does not constitute investment advice.