Looks like crude oil is about to follow gold’s footsteps—testing previous lows before rebounding. Long-term, gold and oil are positively correlated, but recently, especially after the U.S.-Iran conflict, they’ve been in a hedging relationship. Today compared to April 17th, it’s really the same Friday, same talk of reaching an agreement, same vibe, same formula. The difference this time is that the setup is way less dramatic than when Mnuchin attended last time. This time, it’s all Trump threatening to strike first, followed by TACO playing their hand. It seems more like laying the groundwork for next week’s FOMC narrative—low oil prices to suppress inflation. But looking at $120 → $110 → $105, each rebound peak is getting lower. Next time, we might only be able to hope for something around $90+. Zooming into the charts, keep an eye on the psychological $80 level. If WTI breaks below $80 but quickly recovers, it’ll look a lot like gold’s “fake breakout + event reversal + short covering.” If it drops below $80 and stays there, with term structure collapsing, crack spreads/products weakening, it’ll signal the market shifting from “geopolitical premium unwinding” to “demand/inventory repricing.” In that case, the rebound quality will be much weaker.