Joe Burnett, MSBA
Joe Burnett, MSBA|Feb 04, 2026 18:22
There has been a noticeable rise in confusion and anxiety around recent bitcoin price action. A range of explanations have surfaced: Some point to quantum risk. Others focus on potentially insolvent crypto exchanges. Others cite declining liquidity conditions. In my view, price tends to move first, and investors then search for a narrative to explain it. With countless variables at play, short term stories usually reflect sentiment more than fundamentals. One relationship that stands out is bitcoin’s recent correlation with IGV, a software equity ETF. Both have declined sharply and almost in lockstep. The prevailing explanation ties this move to AI commoditizing software and compressing software valuations. Markets appear to be treating bitcoin and software equities as the same trade. That assumption may persist for now, yet it rests on a weak underlying thesis. Bitcoin is open source software, yet it functions as a monetary tool grounded in energy, thermodynamics, and mathematics. It's a digital tool anchored in the physical world. As AI accelerates and pushes technology deflation through digital goods and software companies, wealth will gravitate toward assets that resist dilution. Bitcoin is perfect scarcity in a world trending toward abundance. Perfect scarcity does not evolve the way software products do. Just like the number zero cannot become more zero. A circle cannot become more round. Bitcoin’s scarcity exists at this same boundary condition. It is complete, final, and unimprovable. The protocol itself can evolve in areas like cryptography, including post quantum security. But the scarcity and monetary policy cannot be improved. With that said, the current correlation between bitcoin and software equities likely only reflects short term market positioning. Over time, that correlation should weaken. As intelligence expands abundance across software and the physical economy, bitcoin exists as perfect monetary scarcity anchored in math and energy. That fundamental distinction may ultimately break this correlation and send bitcoin significantly higher.(Joe Burnett, MSBA)
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