陈剑Jason
陈剑Jason|3月 06, 2026 12:26
When I was looking at the Bitcoin exchange reserves just now, I found two pieces of data, the second of which is very suspicious and terrifying. The first piece of data is good news. Two days ago, the outflow of Bitcoin from the exchange reached its second largest scale in three years, with a total of 31899 proposed. This to some extent means that there has been a very large buying volume this week, and the selling pressure on the exchange's stock has further decreased. But when I switched to the second image, I found a very suspicious data. Prior to this, the reserves of Bitcoin exchanges were completely negatively correlated with the price of Bitcoin, which is also a reasonable state. From the graph, it is suspicious to see that when exchange reserves decrease, Bitcoin also rises, while when exchange reserves increase, Bitcoin also falls at the same time. But just after Bitcoin reached a historic high on October 6th last year, the correlation between these two data instantly broke! Since then, Bitcoin exchange reserves have sharply decreased, and the rate of decrease has exceeded all previous times. If it were customary, Bitcoin should continue to rise sharply to over 150000 or even 200000. But when a large number of bitcoins were bought and raised on the exchange, the bitcoins surprisingly fell sharply, which is very abnormal. Both reserves and prices fell at the same time, which is unreasonable. When the liquidity of Bitcoin reaches a state of extreme scarcity on the exchange, the pricing power of Bitcoin is no longer fully exercised on the exchange, but rather conducted off exchange. What is even more terrifying is that due to the large amount of Bitcoin being withdrawn from the exchange, the trading position is very thin, consuming not only selling pressure but also buying pressure, making Bitcoin extremely easy to manipulate. As long as a small number of whales sell, it can directly lead to price collapse or rise, thus completing the harvest in derivatives.
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