With the aircraft carrier battle group in place, what is the probability that Trump will attack Iran this weekend? I should have been the first to talk about Trump's difficulty in dealing with Iran without aircraft carrier deployment. This weekend, the USS Lincoln carrier battle group should be able to move to the vicinity of the Persian Gulf, and at the same time, the US military will have multiple fighter jets and refueling planes flying to various air bases in the Middle East this week. Seeing that some friends are worried about whether they will make a move on the weekend: from a personal perspective, the probability is not high because the best opportunity has been missed. Why do you say that? Let's talk about logic: 1. As of today, nationwide protests in Iran have been largely suppressed by the regime, and large-scale street protests have almost disappeared. However, sporadic clashes, underground dissatisfaction, and retaliatory arrests continue, but overall stability is expected. Missed the best opportunity to 'take your life while you're sick' In fact, this domestic uprising in Iran was an emergency for Israel and the United States. At the beginning of the uprising, Trump's focus was still on Venezuela. By mid January, the US military's military strength in the Middle East was still insufficient and they were unable to take action. 2. Trump's Appeal Trump likes the one-time military action that can solve the problem: for example, the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities in June last year and the arrest of Maduro at the beginning of this year are one-time and effective actions, with no risk of dragging the boat. If the United States were to take action against Iran this time, the goal is likely to be to overthrow the regime. Either take advantage of the domestic riots and bombing of key targets in Iran to incite the rebellion, but it is clearly difficult to do so now. Either targeting key figures in Iran through surgical precision strikes, which have little impact on the market. It's obviously difficult to achieve the goal by taking action now. From Trump's point of view, it's better not to move, see if there is a good opportunity behind. 3. Why continue to deploy military forces? The recent domestic uprising in Iran occurred suddenly, and in the first two weeks, the US military wanted to take action but found that there was a lack of Middle Eastern forces and was not prepared. Although the best time has passed now, it also reflects the current weak situation of the US military in the Middle East. Then continue to strengthen At the same time, it is mentioned that although the situation in Iran is currently under control, there are still sporadic conflicts and underground retaliation. If Mossad and CIA make further efforts, there may be a resurgence. If there is another internal turmoil in Iran in the future, there may be another opportunity to take action.