0xSun|Dec 29, 2025 10:36
Recently, the market has been stagnant, and the main topics of high discussion on Twitter are Perp Dex, Predictive Market, and X402.
Let's talk about Perp Dex first. I think the success of Hyperliquid has proven that on chain contracts have real user needs. Analogous to CEX, although Binance has a strong leading advantage, it has not yet reached the level of monopolizing the market, so the Perp Dex track can definitely accommodate more than just the next HL.
Among the current products, the one I am most optimistic about is still Lighter @ Lighter_xyz. Although there have been some FUDs recently due to factors such as witches, airdrop rules, and unclear TGE timing, from the perspectives of product strength, team capabilities, financing background, etc., Lighter is still the project in my mind that has the best opportunity to secure a stable position and compete with HL to a certain extent. Its advantages such as zero renewal fees, liquidity in foreign exchange and commodity trading are tangible.
Due to the fact that the various coin issuance details of Lighter have not been announced yet, it is not possible to make a too specific judgment on the opening situation. Considering the overall market sentiment is average at present, if the airdrop quantity is relatively generous, I believe the most likely trend is to start with a drop caused by airdrop selling pressure, and then gradually build a bottom and rebound.
Let's talk about predicting the market again. Without a doubt, it is the most popular Crypto application, and it has even left the cryptocurrency circle to some extent, only combining blockchain technology. Any event with uncertainty can theoretically be used for users to place bets.
Of course, there are also some criticized aspects of the prediction market at present, such as certain topics involving political sensitivity, whether betting on war casualties is contrary to morality, etc. There are also some events that have caused controversy due to unclear judgment rules. In addition, a common concern is that when the interests are large enough, there is a motivation to change the outcome through internal manipulation, which leads to the prediction market having an impact on the direction of events.
But it is undeniable that predicting the market is currently the most anticipated next big narrative, so it is still necessary to understand the relevant concepts as early as possible and engage in some interaction within our capabilities. There have been many shares on Twitter about the specific interaction methods for predicting the market, so I won't go into detail because the interaction of predicting market spreads, judgments, and other issues is not as easy as Perp DEX trading. Before actually getting started, it is necessary to understand the relevant concepts clearly.
Several large-scale projects, Polymarket has not yet determined the release time, and many people believe it will be around the 2026 World Cup. Kalshi is still uncertain whether to release coins, while OPINION @ opionlabsxyz is currently the best developed on the BNB chain. I just saw the news today, and the trading volume has exceeded 10 billion. The data gap between these three is ahead of other projects, and Binance has always provided certain support for BNB ecosystem projects. Therefore, from an interactive perspective, Polymarket and Opinion are the most suitable choices for most people.
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