qinbafrank
qinbafrank|May 15, 2025 05:18
Thank you, Brother Pai. From a personal perspective, it's not yet time for everything to be settled. The temporary peace talks between China and the United States will be postponed for 90 days. This kind of game still has room for negotiation. Previously, we talked about adding additional equivalent tariffs (the extra part added on billboard 4.2), but in the end, there is a high probability that it will be abandoned. https://((((x.com)))/qinbufark/status/1919901685780250819? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A, However, there are still many trade negotiation stages at this stage, and there will be unexpected situations. More important are inflation and economic fundamentals, as the current base tariff of 10% and some industry tariffs have already been implemented. The US still has a 30% import tariff on China, and immediate tariffs may not have a long-term impact on inflation but are likely to be at least a one-time shock. All of these will bring potential risks in the future (which may become apparent in June or July). Of course, the advantage is that Trump has also converged a lot after the big market fluctuations and basic market fluctuations in March and April, and the White House is also headed by "rationalists" like Vincent Besant https://((((((x. com)))/qinbafrank/status/1922078377407561973? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A, So the possibility of further chaos in the future is much smaller. After the future tariffs, tax reduction and deregulation are likely to be the main narrative. In the second half of the year and the third quarter, the risks mentioned above indicate a market downturn, but personally, I think the impact should be smaller than the wave in early April. In the next three quarters, we should be able to see the Fed's interest rate cuts. Have you talked about it specifically here? Https://((((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/1922427111148814603? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A。 I agree with Brother Pai's view on Shanzhai Ji. Indeed, the current liquidity situation is vastly different from the unlimited quantitative easing in 2021. On the other hand, the market is becoming increasingly mature. I have discussed the iteration and understanding of Shanzhai coins before. https://((((x.com)))/qinbufank/status/1816383628235989447? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A, So Xiaobi is just a structured market, without a comprehensive knockoff season, there are only hotspots and structured market trends. From this perspective, mainstream knockoffs are actually similar to the Russell 2000 https://(((x.com))/qinbufark/status/1813363472803197009? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A。 I look forward to the emergence of fundamental projects in the future and waiting for better liquidity. My personal opinion is for reference
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