Federal Reserve interest rate is the policy interest rate and target interest rate set by the Federal Reserve Board of the United States, and it is the goal of American monetary policy. The Federal Reserve operates through the open market and realizes this interest rate. Usually, the rise and fall of interest rate can reflect the quality of the economy.

Federal funds rate

Consumer Price Index is a price change indicator based on the prices of products and services related to residents' lives, and is usually used as an important indicator to observe the level of inflation.

Consumer Price Index

Nonfarm payrolls, a key indicator in the U.S. jobs report, reflect changes in the number of part-time and full-time employees employed by the country's businesses and government outside of agricultural production.

Non-farm employment

The unemployment rate in the United States is a very important economic indicator in the American non-agricultural data report, which refers to the ratio of the unemployed population to the working population in a certain period of time.

Unemployment Rate

The U.S. ADP employment data, also known as "small non-farm payrolls", is an advance forecast of the U.S. non-farm payrolls.

Automatic Data Processing

The full name of PCE is Personal consumption expenditures price index, which reflects the changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in the United States, and is a major indicator for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to measure inflation.

Compared with expectations	Probability of BTC falling(%)	Probability of BTC rising(%)
Actual > Forecast	53.33	46.67
Actual = Forecast	31.82	68.18
Actual < Forecast	46.67	53.33

Past PCE data				BTC price changes
Release data	Actual	Forecast	Influence	5m increase(%)
04/30/2025, 22:00	2.6	2.6	Bullish	0.36
04/30/2025, 20:30	0.0	0.0		0.00
03/28/2025, 20:30	2.8	2.7	Bearish	-0.34
02/28/2025, 21:30	2.6	2.6	Bullish	0.37
01/31/2025, 21:30	2.8	2.8	Bearish	-0.19
12/20/2024, 21:30	2.8	2.9	Bullish	1.59
11/27/2024, 23:00	2.8	2.8	Bullish	0.02
11/27/2024, 21:30	0.0	2.8	Bearish	-0.11
10/31/2024, 20:30	2.7	2.6	Bullish	0.14
09/27/2024, 20:30	2.7	2.7	Bullish	0.27
08/30/2024, 20:30	2.6	2.7	Bullish	0.01
07/26/2024, 20:30	2.6	2.5	Bearish	-0.20
06/28/2024, 20:30	2.6	2.6	Bearish	-0.28
05/31/2024, 20:30	2.8	2.8	Bullish	0.46

Data interpretation	The full name of PCE is Personal consumption expenditures price index, which reflects the changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in the United States, and is a major indicator for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to measure inflation.
Data impact	If the U.S. core PCE price index records a high value, it will be good for the dollar and bad for cryptocurrencies; if the data is low, it will be bad for the dollar and good for cryptocurrencies.
Publishing agency	U.S. Department of Commerce	Publication frequency	Monthly