Federal Reserve interest rate is the policy interest rate and target interest rate set by the Federal Reserve Board of the United States, and it is the goal of American monetary policy. The Federal Reserve operates through the open market and realizes this interest rate. Usually, the rise and fall of interest rate can reflect the quality of the economy.

Federal funds rate

Consumer Price Index is a price change indicator based on the prices of products and services related to residents' lives, and is usually used as an important indicator to observe the level of inflation.

Consumer Price Index

Nonfarm payrolls, a key indicator in the U.S. jobs report, reflect changes in the number of part-time and full-time employees employed by the country's businesses and government outside of agricultural production.

Non-farm employment

The unemployment rate in the United States is a very important economic indicator in the American non-agricultural data report, which refers to the ratio of the unemployed population to the working population in a certain period of time.

Unemployment Rate

The U.S. ADP employment data, also known as "small non-farm payrolls", is an advance forecast of the U.S. non-farm payrolls.

Automatic Data Processing

The full name of PCE is Personal consumption expenditures price index, which reflects the changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in the United States, and is a major indicator for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to measure inflation.

Compared with expectations	Probability of BTC falling(%)	Probability of BTC rising(%)
Actual > Forecast	40.91	59.09
Actual = Forecast	N/A	N/A
Actual < Forecast	52.00	48.00

Past ADP data				BTC price changes
Release data	Actual	Forecast	Influence	5m increase(%)
04/30/2025, 20:15	62.0K	115.0K	Bearish	-0.06
04/02/2025, 20:15	155.0K	105.0K	Bearish	-0.01
03/05/2025, 21:15	77.0K	140.0K	Bearish	-0.14
02/05/2025, 21:15	183.0K	150.0K	Bullish	0.01
01/08/2025, 21:15	122.0K	140.0K	Bearish	-0.01
12/04/2024, 21:15	146.0K	150.0K	Bearish	-0.09
10/30/2024, 20:15	233.0K	115.0K	Bearish	-0.04
10/02/2024, 20:15	143.0K	120.0K	Bullish	0.11
09/05/2024, 20:15	99.0K	145.0K	Bearish	-0.52
07/31/2024, 20:15	122.0K	150.0K	Bullish	0.12
07/03/2024, 20:15	150.0K	160.0K	Bearish	-0.03
06/05/2024, 20:15	152.0K	175.0K	Bullish	0.02
05/01/2024, 20:15	192.0K	175.0K	Bearish	-0.38

Data interpretation	The U.S. ADP employment data, also known as "small non-farm payrolls", is an advance forecast of the U.S. non-farm payrolls.
Data impact	If the ADP employment number is higher than expected, it should be considered that the U.S. dollar is strong, which is negative for cryptocurrencies; if the ADP data is lower than expected, it is bearish for the U.S. dollar and good for cryptocurrencies.
Publishing agency	Automatic Data Processing, Inc	Publication frequency	Monthly