Author: Huobi HTX

As the global interest rate environment changes, the investment logic between traditional assets and crypto assets is undergoing a new round of adjustments. Faced with U.S. Treasury bond yields, gold's safe-haven attributes, and Bitcoin's growth potential, how should investors choose?

On November 12, Huobi's Expert Lecture, themed "Global Asset Revaluation: The New Logic of Wealth in the Era of High Interest Rates," invited Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud to conduct an in-depth analysis around the global macro environment, U.S. Treasury yield rates, gold pricing mechanisms, and the institutionalization trend of BTC, exploring the allocation values and risk boundaries of different assets through four macroeconomic scenarios.

Cloud pointed out that high interest rates are redefining the comparative benchmarks of global assets. “There is no universal asset, only different roles.” In the current market environment, investors need to shift from a focus on the yield expectations of individual assets to a more risk-adjusted and portfolio-focused investment framework.

High Interest Rates Reshape Asset Pricing: Risk Assets Need to Address New Questions

Cloud begins with an analysis of the current changes in the global asset pricing system, starting with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the U.S. fiscal environment.

In September 2026, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, increasing the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00%. At the same time, factors such as resilient inflation, fiscal deficits, and U.S. Treasury supply continue to influence the market's judgment of future interest rate paths.

Cloud believes that the persistence of a high interest rate environment not only implies higher funding costs but also means that risk assets face higher comparative return thresholds. When investors can obtain relatively stable coupon yields through short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, holding assets like gold and BTC that do not generate cash flow requires more substantial risk compensation reasons.

This change is reshaping the attractiveness of different assets. For high-volatility assets like BTC, while long-term growth narratives and scarcity are indeed important, macro liquidity, market risk appetite, and institutional fund flows are becoming significant variables affecting price performance.

U.S. Treasury Bonds, Gold, and BTC: Three Assets, Three Pricing Logics

For the three most关注的currently monitored asset classes, Cloud provided an intuitive metaphor: “U.S. Treasury bonds are wages, gold is insurance, and BTC is an option.”

First, the core value of U.S. Treasury bonds lies in coupon yields and cash flow certainty. In a high interest rate environment, short-term U.S. Treasury bonds can provide relatively stable income sources, making them suitable as defensive configuration tools. However, while long-term U.S. Treasury bonds also possess coupon yields, their prices are more sensitive to interest rate changes, and investors must also bear duration risks and price volatility.

Second, the value of gold does not come from generating cash flow, but from credit risk hedging and asset diversification. In recent years, global central bank gold purchases, reserve structure adjustments, and geopolitical uncertainties have provided long-term demand support for gold.

However, Cloud warns that gold cannot continue to rise in any market environment. Factors such as rising real interest rates and a stronger dollar may still suppress gold price performance. Central bank gold purchases help provide long-term support, but do not guarantee short-term price increases. Therefore, gold is more suitable as a risk hedging tool for asset portfolios rather than merely a target for high returns.

For BTC, Cloud focused on the dual impact of institutionalization. As spot ETFs, institutional custody, and investment product systems gradually mature, the connection between BTC and traditional financial markets deepens. On one hand, institutionalization expands BTC's potential investor base; on the other hand, it makes BTC more susceptible to macro liquidity, equity market fluctuations, and changes in institutional fund allocations.

Cloud pointed out that while BTC has scarcity and long-term growth potential, scarcity does not equate to crash resistance; “digital gold” does not mean BTC can serve as a safe haven in any period. Especially in a market environment with declining risk appetite and continued outflows of funds, BTC may still exhibit characteristics of high-beta risk assets.

Which is More Attractive in Four Macro Scenarios?

In the live broadcast, Cloud further constructed four macro scenarios: soft landing, stagflation, recession, and repeated inflation, comparing U.S. Treasury bonds, gold, and BTC horizontally.

In a soft landing scenario, if inflation gradually falls and economic growth remains resilient, a moderate decline in interest rates could bring price recovery opportunities for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds and also benefit assets like gold and BTC.

In a stagflation scenario, with slowing economic growth coexisting with persistent inflation, gold's credit hedging and asset diversification functionalities might become more pronounced, while long-term bonds and overvalued risk assets face certain pressures.

In a recession scenario, if the economy clearly slows down and pushes monetary policy towards easing, long-term U.S. Treasury bonds may gain capital gains due to declining yields, and gold may also benefit from safe-haven demand. BTC will still need to observe changes in market risk appetite and liquidity conditions.

In the scenario of repeated inflation and renewed tightening of monetary policy, the relative defensive value of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds may become more apparent, while long-term bonds, gold, and BTC may all face different degrees of valuation pressure.

Cloud emphasized that macro scenarios are not single market predictions, but rather analytical tools to help investors identify risks and examine the resilience of their portfolios.

From Pursuing Returns to Managing Risks: A Higher Need for Patience in the High Interest Rate Era

In terms of asset allocation, Cloud believes that investors should not simply view U.S. Treasury bonds, gold, and BTC as three interchangeable options, but should clarify the functions of different assets within their portfolios based on their own risk tolerance, investment horizons, and funding needs. Among them, U.S. Treasury bonds can serve as a relatively robust base position, gold for risk diversification and credit hedging, and BTC can serve as an aggressive allocation with higher volatility and potential return elasticity.

Regarding the future trajectory of BTC, Cloud suggests focusing on changes in macro monetary policy, market risk appetite, and institutional fund flows, avoiding assessments of market direction solely based on price retracement or halving cycles. He emphasized at the end of the live broadcast: “In the era of high interest rates, the most expensive thing is not the yield, but patience.”

When relatively stable assets can also provide attractive returns, every time investors take on additional risk, they need to reassess whether the potential returns are sufficient to cover the corresponding uncertainties.

From the yield logic of U.S. Treasury bonds to the credit hedging of gold, and the institutionalization and risk asset characteristics of BTC, this episode of Huobi's Expert Lecture not only showcased the changes in global asset pricing logic but also provided investors with a more comprehensive macro analytical framework.

As Huobi HTX's long-term investor education program, "Expert Lecture" continues to invite industry experts, researchers, and seasoned practitioners to share insights on global macroeconomics, digital assets, blockchain technology, and industry development trends, helping users improve market understanding, risk awareness, and independent judgment abilities.

Note: The above represents the market views shared by the guest during the live broadcast and does not constitute any investment advice.