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Today's Observation
Claude's parent company Anthropic has specific issuance terms for its public listing plan. On November 10, the company submitted an updated prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, intending to publicly offer 825 million shares of Class A common stock at a price range of $70 to $78 per share, planning to list under the code ANT on Nasdaq. Based on the upper limit of the range, the total amount of the public offering is approximately $64.35 billion, which includes proceeds from the sale of shares by some existing shareholders.
In addition to the public offering, Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, and TSMC have signed subscription agreements totaling $26 billion. The seven subscribers will purchase non-voting Class N common shares at the final IPO price, with private placement completion dependent on IPO conditions. Based on a midpoint price of $74 per share, without the underwriters exercising the over-allotment option, Anthropic expects that these two transactions will bring in approximately $84.6 billion in net proceeds for the company.
Operational data also explains the background of this financing. Anthropic reported revenues of approximately $17 billion in the third quarter, exceeding the combined total of the first half of the year, but the GAAP operating results shifted from a profit of $974 million in the second quarter to a loss of $567 million. During the same period, adjusted operating profit increased to approximately $2.5 billion, but the profit margin fell from 19% to 15%. The company attributes the decline in the adjusted profit margin mainly to high costs for short-term computing power procurement.
Data in One Minute
Public Offering: Intended to offer 825 million shares, of which approximately 801 million shares are issued by the company and about 23.65 million shares are sold by existing shareholders. Based on the intended offer price, the total amount of the offering is approximately $57.75 billion to $64.35 billion, excluding over-allotment.
Private Placement Subscription: $10 billion each from Google and Nvidia, $2.5 billion from AMD, $1 billion each from Broadcom, Micron, and Microsoft, and $500 million from TSMC.
Third Quarter Revenue: Approximately $17 billion, compared to about $1.4 billion in the same period last year and approximately $11.6 billion in the second quarter.
Annualized revenue run rate at the end of October: Approximately $81 billion, an increase of about $10 billion from the end of September. This operational metric is calculated based on usage fees over the most recent 28 days and the current monthly subscription fee.
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This subscription combines chip supply, cloud services, and equity financing into one transaction. Google's $10 billion comes from existing financing arrangements, and AMD's $2.5 billion will offset previous equity commitments linked to GPU delivery and deployment. For the supply chain, the subscription agreement clarifies the funding arrangements, while the related commercial returns still depend on whether chips can be delivered on schedule, whether computing power can be utilized, and how much computing power Claude customers will continue to consume.
The cost changes in the third quarter provide a specific reference. Anthropic's costs for computing power and infrastructure rose from about $5.6 billion in the second quarter to approximately $9.9 billion in the third quarter, which includes about $5 billion of short-term committed computing power. Based on the company's disclosed figures, every $1 invested in computing power and infrastructure costs corresponded to current revenues falling from $2.08 to $1.72. Short-term procurement can allow the company to meet customer demands more quickly, but if long-term capacity delivery does not keep up, revenue growth may continue to accompany fluctuations in profit margins.
The prospectus expects that within the 12 months starting from the end of September, the company will pay approximately $70.7 billion in contract payments, some of which are still subject to pre-conditions or termination rights. IPOs and private placements can increase Anthropic's available funds and also give the company time to wait for lower-cost long-term computing power to come online. After its listing, what is most worth tracking is whether the revenue per dollar of computing power costs can rebound after this capacity is delivered and whether revenue growth can gradually convert into stable operating profits and cash flow.
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Risk Warning: Macroeconomic conditions and US stock market fluctuations are severe, and the content of this article is for academic and research reference by the MSX Research Institute only and does not constitute any investment advice.
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