Author: Long Yue, Wall Street Journal
Driven by the AI boom, Anthropic is preparing for an IPO valued up to $100 billion, but a tech veteran who has long been bearish on AI has issued a warning: the Anthropic IPO may mark the peak of the AI market, potentially triggering a chain reaction of corrections after the lock-up period expires.
Jack Selby, head of venture capital firm Copper Sky and managing partner of Peter Thiel's family office, stated in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Wednesday, "If this most anticipated AI company's IPO comes in far below expected valuations, imagine what will happen after the lock-up period ends. A lackluster Anthropic IPO will inevitably become a major catalyst in a considerable correction in the AI market."
Anthropic is currently seeking to raise up to $100 billion through an IPO, private placements, and potential overallotment options. Initial signs show strong market demand, and reports suggest that the scale of issuance may even expand further. However, Selby is skeptical about this.
Selby publicly expressed over a year ago that the frenzy surrounding the AI industry could be the largest bubble in the private tech investment space to date. He raised concerns again, systematically questioning Anthropic's investment value from the perspectives of valuation logic, competitive landscape, and capital structure.
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Lock-up Period Risk: If IPO Fails, Corrections May Trigger a Chain Reaction
Selby's concerns about the Anthropic IPO primarily center around the potential selling pressure after the expiration of the lock-up period.
If this most anticipated AI company's IPO ultimately has a valuation far below the original expectations, one can imagine how much downward pressure the stock price could face once the lock-up period ends and more shares can be sold.
Specifically, Selby pointed out that SoftBank Group and Oracle are the "canaries in the coal mine"—that is, warning signals. He believes Oracle has greater risk exposure due to its higher debt ratio. For investors who must hold AI positions, he suggests shifting to Alphabet's Google.
Concerns About Revenue Structure: Over 80% is Non-Recurring Income
In addition to risks from market sentiment, Selby also questioned the fundamentals of Anthropic.
He noted that over 80% of Anthropic's revenue comes from non-recurring income, making it highly vulnerable to advancements in competitor technologies. If competitors close the gap to within six or nine months, this revenue structure will face severe challenges.
Capital expenditure is also a major concern.
This is an extremely capital-intensive business. Data, energy, data centers, chips—all require expensive investments, and interest rates are no longer near zero.
This is a real business, but it is still in its early stages; thinking of it as a trillion-dollar company seems highly far-fetched.
Competitive Pressure from China
Selby also pointed to competitive pressure from China, believing it is another underestimated risk in Anthropic's valuation logic.
He mentioned that DeepSeek and other Chinese AI models are currently only about six months behind Anthropic, posing a direct threat to it.
Selby also stated that if conditions allow, he would "heavily invest in Chinese AI." He believes that Anthropic cannot claim that all its business must rely on American models, as most AI use cases currently resemble fundamental tool-like applications, providing space for the replacement by Chinese models.
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