Author: Deep Tides TechFlow

The MSCI will publish the final review list for routine index adjustments after the close of trading at 17:00 Eastern Time on November 11 (6:00 AM Beijing Time on November 12). Research institution Solid Intel has pointed out that if Strategy is removed from the flagship index, passive tracking funds will face a potential sell-off of up to $2.8 billion.

Currently, five digital asset reserve companies have entered the preliminary review removal observation list, including the Japanese listed company Metaplanet, which holds approximately 44,000 bitcoins. Since Strategy accounts for over 90% of the affected group's circulating market value, this index adjustment has become a key sample for Wall Street to assess the liquidity risk of crypto reserve companies.

Index Exclusion Rules Shift to Non-Operating Entity Definition

Looking back at the policy evolution of index providers, MSCI initiated the MSCI Digital Asset Threshold Consultation Announcement in October 2025, aiming to remove companies with a digital asset percentage exceeding 50% of total assets from global investable market indices and suspend weight adjustments for related companies.

The organization formally established the MSCI Non-Operating Entity Rules Announcement on October 15, 2026, shifting to financial metric screening: if a company fails the operating asset test in two consecutive annual reports, and fails to meet the standards in four out of five indicators covering operating assets, expenses, cash flow, etc., it will be classified as a non-operating entity.

Strategy stated in its commentary submitted to MSCI that such a non-operating classification lacks a basis in generally accepted accounting principles. The company has formally disclosed the compliance risk of being removed from the index due to new regulatory parameters in its latest third-quarter financial report submitted to the SEC.

Passive Fund Selling Pressure May Extend to $8.8 Billion

Institutions' projections of fund outflow gradients exhibit a chain reaction characteristic. According to Crypto Briefing's in-depth analysis, JPMorgan analysts estimate that simply the exclusion from the MSCI flagship index would trigger forced reductions of approximately $2.8 billion in MSTR equity by index funds.

If other mainstream index providers globally follow suit by adopting similar rules, the cross-index passive sell-off scale is expected to expand to as much as $8.8 billion. Since passive investment tools must strictly match the benchmark, index funds cannot defer sales based on subjective judgments, and liquidity pressure mainly concentrates around the effective date of the rules.

Equity Selling Pressure Does Not Alter Cryptocurrency Holdings and Adjustment Window

Passive reductions in stocks and the handling of underlying cryptocurrency assets belong to two different levels. According to Bitcoin Magazine's latest disclosure, Strategy has recently raised $283.8 million by issuing equity at market price (ATM) to acquire 1,036 bitcoins, while still holding $4.77 billion in USD reserves.

As of November 8, 2026, Strategy has accumulated 850,364 bitcoins, with a total cost of $64.16 billion, and an average holding price of $75,456. The passive fund's selling only occurs on the secondary market for stocks and will not trigger the custodial entity to sell bitcoin in the spot market; the underlying reserve assets remain isolated.

The gains and losses of passive index seats will affect stock trading liquidity and valuation premiums. When the premium of secondary market stock prices relative to net assets narrows, the interest margin for the company to purchase bitcoins through equity issuance will also narrow, thereby reducing the turnover efficiency of the incremental bitcoin purchasing flywheel.

The final review list for the MSCI index is scheduled to be released after the close of trading on November 11, Eastern Time. If the adjustments are confirmed, the removal of component stocks is set to take effect after the market closes on November 30, 2026, and tracking funds must complete the corresponding position clearance within the effective window.